Sport Picks
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo 
Match Events
18'
18'
Dudok R.
24'
24'
Sub
Vazquez A. In: De Los Santos E.
Out: Vazquez A.
29'
29'
Brazionis
AI Match Summary
The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Racing Montevideo and Progreso finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
63%
20%
17%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Racing Montevideo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
63%
/ High Confidence
- Racing Montevideo carry the better recent record into this one.
- Racing Montevideo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 68%
Progreso Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Racing Montevideo | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 13 | 6 |
| Draws | 10 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.19 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.74 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 0.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso
1:1
Sep 29, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso
0:0
Jun 22, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso
3:0
Mar 30, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo
0:1
Sep 21, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Racing Montevideo Compare
Top Goalscorer Dudok R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Progreso Compare
Top Goalscorer De Leon F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Racing Montevideo 95 / 100
Progreso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Racing Montevideo Progreso
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Racing Montevideo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Progreso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.
Racing Montevideo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Racing Montevideo's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Progreso lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Racing Montevideo VS Progreso
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Racing Montevideo
(Home) 31 Aug
Racing Montevideo
1 : 0 Albion
23 Aug
Danubio
0 : 0 Racing Montevideo
15 Aug
Racing Montevideo
2 : 0 Club Nacional
10 Aug
Maldonado
2 : 2 Racing Montevideo
02 Aug
Racing Montevideo
1 : 0 Boston River
Page 1 of 6
31 Aug
Racing Montevideo
1 : 0 Albion
15 Aug
Racing Montevideo
2 : 0 Club Nacional
02 Aug
Racing Montevideo
1 : 0 Boston River
12 Jul
Racing Montevideo
1 : 1 Penarol
30 May
Racing Montevideo
0 : 0 Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 3
Progreso
(Away) 29 Aug
Progreso
1 : 0 Danubio
26 Aug
Progreso
0 : 2 River Plate Montevideo
23 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 0 Progreso
16 Aug
Progreso
0 : 2 Maldonado
08 Aug
Central Esp.
1 : 0 Progreso
Page 1 of 6
23 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 0 Progreso
08 Aug
Central Esp.
1 : 0 Progreso
02 Aug
Club Nacional
2 : 1 Progreso
11 Jul
Wanderers
2 : 0 Progreso
30 May
Danubio
1 : 2 Progreso
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Montevideo City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sp. | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool M. | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | CA Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | 10 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
