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Raith vs Arbroath - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Stark's Park, Kirkcaldy
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Oakley G.
15' Event
Oakley G.
Assist: Adamson C.
21'
Sub
Watson C. In: Winter A.
Out: Watson C.

AI Match Summary

Raith in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Raith.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Raith
20%
Draws
23%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Raith

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Arbroath haven't matched Raith's recent run of results.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Raith taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Raith Clean Sheet 68%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Raith Arbroath
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 9
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.55 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Championship
Raith vs Arbroath
4:0
Apr 18, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Raith
2:1
Jan 10, 2026 Championship
Raith vs Arbroath
2:3
Nov 22, 2025 Championship
Arbroath vs Raith
0:0
Sep 27, 2025 Championship
Raith vs Arbroath
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Raith Compare

Top Goalscorer Oakley G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rowe J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Arbroath Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Raith 95 / 100
Arbroath 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Raith Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Raith Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Raith's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Arbroath has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Raith went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Raith VS Arbroath
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Raith

(Home)
03 Oct
Morton
1 : 2
Raith
25 Sept
Raith
0 : 2
Livingston
19 Sept
Partick
0 : 0
Raith
12 Sept
Raith
4 : 0
Arbroath
05 Sept
Inverness
0 : 2
Raith
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Arbroath

(Away)
03 Oct
Partick
3 : 0
Arbroath
25 Sept
Arbroath
2 : 1
Queen's Park
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
12 Sept
Raith
4 : 0
Arbroath
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 12:2 22
2 Raith 9 5 2 2 13:6 17
3 Partick 8 4 3 1 8:2 15
4 Livingston 9 4 1 4 13:9 13
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 6:4 12
6 Ayr 9 3 2 4 9:10 11
7 Arbroath 9 3 2 4 6:13 11
8 Inverness 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
10 Morton 9 0 1 8 5:17 1
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)