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Rakvere vs Santos Tartu

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga 2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rakvere play Santos Tartu in the Esiliiga 2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Rakvere averaged 1.09 goals scored and 2.58 conceded. Santos Tartu averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Rakvere won 1, Santos Tartu won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 27, 2018 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.85 for Rakvere and 1.94 for Santos Tartu. This points to a Santos Tartu double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Rakvere
23%
Draws
51%
Santos Tartu
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Santos Tartu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Rakvere picked up more points recently compared to Santos Tartu.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.85 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Rakvere Clean Sheet 10%
Santos Tartu Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 78%
Second Half Goal 83%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rakvere Santos Tartu
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 4 6
Losses 22 13
Goals Scored 1.09 1.47
Goals Conceded 2.58 1.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2018 Esiliiga
Santos Tartu vs Rakvere
2:0
Aug 4, 2018 Esiliiga
Rakvere vs Santos Tartu
2:2
May 10, 2018 Esiliiga
Santos Tartu vs Rakvere
1:1
Apr 12, 2018 Esiliiga
Rakvere vs Santos Tartu
2:1
Sep 21, 2017 Esiliiga
Santos Tartu vs Rakvere
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rakvere Compare

Top Goalscorer Rannamae S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Santos Tartu Compare

Top Goalscorer Kallandi K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rakvere 25 / 100
Santos Tartu 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rakvere Santos Tartu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Santos Tartu or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +44.6%
5.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Rakvere attacking → ← attacking Santos Tartu

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rakvere scored in 61% of their last 33 games.

Santos Tartu let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Rakvere went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Santos Tartu lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 39
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
2.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Maardu Linnameeskond362916126:3888
2Flora Tallinn U21362187115:3171
3Levadia U21361871167:5661
4Elva3615101151:6455
5Rakvere3614101259:6052
6Tartu JK Welco361261844:7842
7Santos Tartu361181747:6841
8Tallinna Kalev U21361091737:5239
9Keila JK361052141:8835
10Kalju U2136562537:8921