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Rapperswil-Jona vs Bellinzona

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Grünfeld
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rapperswil-Jona play Bellinzona in the Challenge League 2025/2026. Rapperswil-Jona are favorites here. Recently, Rapperswil-Jona averaged 1.73 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Bellinzona averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. In past meetings, Rapperswil-Jona won 3, Bellinzona won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Rapperswil-Jona and 1.00 for Bellinzona. This points to a Rapperswil-Jona double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Rapperswil-Jona
25%
Draws
15%
Bellinzona
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Rapperswil-Jona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Rapperswil-Jona picked up more points recently compared to Bellinzona.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Rapperswil-Jona Clean Sheet 23%
Bellinzona Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rapperswil-Jona Bellinzona
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 5
Draws 2 4
Losses 14 21
Goals Scored 1.73 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.77 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Challenge League
Bellinzona vs Rapperswil-Jona
2:4
Feb 20, 2026 Challenge League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Bellinzona
2:1
Nov 28, 2025 Challenge League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Bellinzona
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Challenge League
Bellinzona vs Rapperswil-Jona
1:1
Apr 30, 2022 Promotion League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Bellinzona
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rapperswil-Jona Compare

Top Goalscorer Kamberi F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Schmidt J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Bellinzona Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossier E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rapperswil-Jona 59 / 100
Bellinzona 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rapperswil-Jona Bellinzona

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rapperswil-Jona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Rapperswil-Jona & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.7%
1.59
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Rapperswil-Jona attacking → ← attacking Bellinzona

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rapperswil-Jona scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Bellinzona let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Rapperswil-Jona went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bellinzona lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 19
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vaduz36256575:4181
2Aarau36255677:4780
3Yverdon36207975:4867
4Lausanne Ouchy361481459:5150
5Xamax361471555:5649
6Rapperswil-Jona361422052:6244
7Etoile-Carouge3610101646:5440
8Wil3610101639:5540
9Stade Nyonnais365131833:6028
10Bellinzona36582340:7723