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Rapperswil-Jona vs Etoile-Carouge

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Grünfeld, Rapperswil-Jona
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Correia O.
Assist: El Jaouhari M.
23' Event
Kamberi F.
(Penalty)
55' Event
Luthi J.
Assist: Emini L.

AI Match Summary

Rapperswil-Jona in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Rapperswil-Jona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Rapperswil-Jona
6%
Draws
4%
Etoile-Carouge
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Rapperswil-Jona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Rapperswil-Jona have won more games recently than Etoile-Carouge.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Rapperswil-Jona taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Rapperswil-Jona have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Rapperswil-Jona Clean Sheet 20%
Etoile-Carouge Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rapperswil-Jona Etoile-Carouge
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 9
Draws 2 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 2 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Challenge League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Etoile-Carouge
2:1
Jan 30, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona
2:1
Nov 21, 2025 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona
0:2
Jul 25, 2025 Challenge League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Etoile-Carouge
1:0
May 18, 2024 Promotion League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Etoile-Carouge
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rapperswil-Jona Compare

Top Goalscorer Luthi J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Etoile-Carouge Compare

Top Goalscorer Correia O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rapperswil-Jona 85 / 100
Etoile-Carouge 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rapperswil-Jona Etoile-Carouge

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RAP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rapperswil-Jona found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Etoile-Carouge let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Rapperswil-Jona stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rapperswil-Jona VS Etoile-Carouge
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rapperswil-Jona

(Home)
17 Jul
Rapperswil-Jona
3 : 1
Cham
04 Jul
Lugano
1 : 1
Rapperswil-Jona
26 Jun
Rapperswil-Jona
0 : 3
Basel
24 Jun
Freienbach
1 : 3
Rapperswil-Jona
15 May
Rapperswil-Jona
2 : 1
Stade Nyonnais
Page 1 of 6

Etoile-Carouge

(Away)
18 Jul
Young Boys
5 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
11 Jul
Servette
1 : 2
Etoile-Carouge
04 Jul
Lausanne
1 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
01 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
0 : 1
Grand-Saconnex
27 Jun
Sion
7 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vaduz36256575:4181
2Aarau36255677:4780
3Yverdon36207975:4867
4Lausanne Ouchy361481459:5150
5Xamax361471555:5649
6Rapperswil-Jona361422052:6244
7Etoile-Carouge3610101646:5440
8Wil3610101639:5540
9Stade Nyonnais365131833:6028
10Bellinzona36582340:7723
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)