Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ravenna vs Aglianese Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ravenna play Aglianese Calcio in the Serie D - Group D 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ravenna averaged 1.48 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Aglianese Calcio averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Ravenna won 1, Aglianese Calcio won 0, and they drew 4. Their last match on Mar 10, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Ravenna and 0.81 for Aglianese Calcio. This points to a Ravenna double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Ravenna
35%
Draws
27%
Aglianese Calcio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ravenna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Ravenna picked up more points recently compared to Aglianese Calcio.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Ravenna Clean Sheet 26%
Aglianese Calcio Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ravenna Aglianese Calcio
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 20 11
Draws 11 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.48 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Ravenna vs Aglianese Calcio
1:0
Nov 1, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Ravenna
1:1
Jan 25, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Ravenna vs Aglianese Calcio
2:2
Sep 21, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Ravenna
2:2
Mar 13, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Ravenna vs Aglianese Calcio
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ravenna Compare

Top Goalscorer Tirelli M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Aglianese Calcio Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ravenna 39 / 100
Aglianese Calcio 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ravenna Aglianese Calcio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ravenna or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ravenna attacking → ← attacking Aglianese Calcio

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ravenna scored in 80% of their last 40 games.

Aglianese Calcio let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Ravenna went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Aglianese Calcio lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

71 Points in last 5 41
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Carpi32215666:3168
2Ravenna32199456:1366
3Corticella321831159:4057
4Victor San Marino32176944:3757
5Lentigione32168849:3156
6Forli FC32167948:3555
7Prato321281237:4144
8Sangiuliano City321281232:3744
9Fanfulla3211101128:3543
10Sant'Angelo321181347:4441
11Aglianese Calcio321181332:3941
12Imolese321261431:3340
13Sammaurese321141737:4837
14SCD Progresso321141727:4337
15San Donnino325101732:5825
16Certaldo32662022:5524
17Mezzolara32562123:5021
18Pistoiese00000:00