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Rayo Vallecano vs Elche - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

LaLiga Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rayo Vallecano host Elche in the LaLiga. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Elche have shipped 1.55 goals a game lately, while Rayo Vallecano have conceded 1.4 and scored 1.33. Past meetings favor Elche slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 3, 2026, ending 1:0. xG projections (1.75 - 1.88) back Rayo Vallecano to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Rayo Vallecano
30%
Draws
29%
Elche
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rayo Vallecano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Elche haven't matched Rayo Vallecano's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 10%
Elche Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rayo Vallecano Elche
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.33 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 LaLiga
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano
4:0
Apr 29, 2023 LaLiga
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano
4:0
Oct 3, 2022 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
2:1
Feb 18, 2022 LaLiga
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rayo Vallecano 34 / 100
Elche 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rayo Vallecano Elche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elche Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Rayo Vallecano scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Elche has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Rayo Vallecano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rayo Vallecano VS Elche
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Rayo Vallecano

(Home)
19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
15 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 1
Espanyol
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
05 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2
Racing Santander
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 6

Elche

(Away)
11 Oct
Elche
0 : 0
Celta Vigo
18 Sept
Espanyol
1 : 3
Elche
15 Sept
Elche
2 : 3
Real Madrid
12 Sept
Ath Bilbao
1 : 1
Elche
07 Sept
Elche
2 : 3
Real Sociedad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barcelona 8 8 0 0 34:7 24
2 Atl. Madrid 8 6 1 1 18:8 19
3 Betis 8 6 1 1 14:9 19
4 Real Madrid 8 6 0 2 19:8 18
5 Sevilla 8 4 2 2 13:12 14
6 Real Sociedad 8 4 1 3 12:15 13
7 Alaves 8 3 2 3 12:8 11
8 Dep. A Coruna 8 2 4 2 12:11 10
9 Celta Vigo 8 1 5 2 8:6 8
10 Ath Bilbao 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
11 Villarreal 8 2 2 4 13:13 8
12 Espanyol 8 2 2 4 11:11 8
13 Rayo Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11:16 8
14 Getafe 8 2 2 4 4:10 8
15 Racing Santander 8 2 2 4 13:23 8
16 Osasuna 8 2 2 4 8:18 8
17 Levante 7 1 3 3 11:15 6
18 Elche 8 1 3 4 11:17 6
19 Valencia 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
20 Malaga 8 0 4 4 4:13 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)