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RB Leipzig vs PSV - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Champions League Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

RB Leipzig host PSV in the Champions League. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. RB Leipzig have averaged 1.93 scored and 1.43 conceded recently, against PSV's 2.87 scored and 1.6 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (2.00 - 2.13) back PSV to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
RB Leipzig
15%
Draws
53%
PSV
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: PSV

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • PSV have won more games recently than RB Leipzig.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Champions League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
RB Leipzig Clean Sheet 10%
PSV Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RB Leipzig PSV
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 19
Draws 3 4
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.93 2.87
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RB Leipzig 30 / 100
PSV 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RB Leipzig PSV

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: RB Leipzig scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

PSV let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: RB Leipzig stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: PSV has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

RB Leipzig VS PSV
2.63 Goals Scored 2.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

RB Leipzig

(Home)
20 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
RB Leipzig
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0
Hamburger
10 Sept
Como
4 : 1
RB Leipzig
05 Sept
Werder Bremen
3 : 1
RB Leipzig
29 Aug
RB Leipzig
3 : 0
B. Monchengladbach
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PSV

(Away)
20 Sept
Twente
3 : 2
PSV
13 Sept
PSV
4 : 1
Sparta Rotterdam
10 Sept
PSV
1 : 1
Shakhtar
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3
PSV
30 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 6
PSV
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 1 1 0 0 6:1 3
2 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
3 Barcelona 1 1 0 0 5:1 3
4 Manchester United 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
5 Como 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
6 VfB Stuttgart 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
7 Sporting CP 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
8 Manchester City 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
9 Aston Villa 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
10 Lens 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
11 Betis 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
12 Dortmund 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
13 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
14 Real Madrid 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
15 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
16 AEK 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
17 AS Roma 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
18 Shakhtar 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
19 PSV 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
20 Fenerbahce 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
21 Villarreal 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
22 Lille 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
23 Slavia Prague 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
24 Club Brugge 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
25 Inter 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
26 Atl. Madrid 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
27 Napoli 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
28 LASK Linz 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
29 Viking 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
30 Galatasaray 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
31 FC Porto 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
32 RB Leipzig 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
33 Feyenoord 1 0 0 1 1:5 0
34 Sabah Baku 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
35 Slovan Bratislava 1 0 0 1 1:6 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)