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RB Leipzig W vs Mainz W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Women Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Joly L.
29'
Sub
Joly L. In: Hulst C.
Out: Joly L.
29'
Simonsson T.

AI Match Summary

RB Leipzig W in this Bundesliga Women matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored RB Leipzig W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
RB Leipzig W
15%
Draws
20%
Mainz W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: RB Leipzig W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Mainz W have won more games recently than RB Leipzig W.
  • Model gives RB Leipzig W a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
RB Leipzig W Clean Sheet 16%
Mainz W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RB Leipzig W Mainz W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 2.24 2.24
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Bundesliga Women
RB Leipzig W vs Mainz W
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RB Leipzig W Compare

Top Goalscorer Boboy D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tuin A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Mainz W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RB Leipzig W 84 / 100
Mainz W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RB Leipzig W Mainz W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RB Leipzig W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RB Leipzig W found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Mainz W has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: RB Leipzig W stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

RB Leipzig W VS Mainz W
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

RB Leipzig W

(Home)
03 Oct
RB Leipzig W
5 : 0
Mainz W
27 Sept
Blau-Gelb Marburg W
0 : 2
RB Leipzig W
20 Sept
Union Berlin W
3 : 2
RB Leipzig W
12 Sept
RB Leipzig W
2 : 1
1.FC Nurnberg W
05 Sept
Hamburger W
1 : 1
RB Leipzig W
Page 1 of 6

Mainz W

(Away)
03 Oct
RB Leipzig W
5 : 0
Mainz W
26 Sept
Ingolstadt W
1 : 6
Mainz W
18 Sept
Mainz W
2 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt W
13 Sept
Freiburg W
3 : 0
Mainz W
05 Sept
Mainz W
0 : 4
Koln W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich W 6 6 0 0 19:6 18
2 Wolfsburg W 6 5 0 1 18:8 15
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 6 4 1 1 11:6 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen W 6 4 0 2 12:9 12
5 Werder Bremen W 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
6 Freiburg W 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
7 Koln W 6 3 0 3 10:8 9
8 VfB Stuttgart W 6 2 2 2 8:12 8
9 RB Leipzig W 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
10 Union Berlin W 6 2 0 4 8:11 6
11 Hoffenheim W 6 2 0 4 8:11 6
12 Hamburger W 6 1 2 3 9:8 5
13 1.FC Nurnberg W 6 0 2 4 9:21 2
14 Mainz W 6 0 0 6 3:19 0
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga Women 2027/2028 (Main)