Sport Picks
Real Aviles vs Lugo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta, Avilés 
Match Events
5'
5'
Santamaria A.
Assist: Mayo S.
52'
52'
Sub
Haro P. In: Perez S.
Out: Haro P.
52'
52'
Sub
Garriz I. In: Hermoso K.
Out: Garriz I.
AI Match Summary
Lugo in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lugo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
30%
51%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lugo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Lugo have won more games recently than Real Aviles.
- 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Real Aviles Clean Sheet 16%
Lugo Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Real Aviles | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 14 |
| Draws | 14 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 2, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Real Aviles vs Lugo
1:2
Jan 25, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Real Aviles vs Lugo
1:2
Sep 6, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Real Aviles
0:0
Aug 19, 2023 Club Friendly
Real Aviles vs Lugo
1:0
Jul 24, 2019 Club Friendly
Real Aviles vs Lugo
0:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Real Aviles Compare
Top Goalscorer Santamaria A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Lugo Compare
Top Goalscorer Costa A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Godoy A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Real Aviles 31 / 100
Lugo 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Real Aviles Lugo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lugo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Real Aviles scored in 86% of their last 29 games.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Real Aviles has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Lugo has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Real Aviles VS Lugo
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Real Aviles
(Home) 02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2 Lugo
27 Sept
Barakaldo
3 : 3 Real Aviles
19 Sept
CD Coria
1 : 1 Real Aviles
12 Sept
Real Aviles
3 : 1 Unionistas de Salamanca
06 Sept
Ath Bilbao B
2 : 1 Real Aviles
Page 1 of 6
02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2 Lugo
12 Sept
Real Aviles
3 : 1 Unionistas de Salamanca
28 Aug
Real Aviles
0 : 1 Pontevedra
21 Aug
Real Aviles
4 : 2 Gijon B
17 May
Real Aviles
1 : 4 Barakaldo
Page 1 of 3
Lugo
(Away) 02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2 Lugo
26 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0 Racing Club Ferrol
20 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2 Lugo
13 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0 CD Coria
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0 Lugo
Page 1 of 6
02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2 Lugo
20 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2 Lugo
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0 Lugo
30 Aug
Unionistas de Salamanca
1 : 3 Lugo
12 Aug
Bergantinos
0 : 3 Lugo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logrones | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 2 | Lugo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9:3 | 16 |
| 3 | Ath Bilbao B | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 4 | Cacereno | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:3 | 11 |
| 5 | Ponferradina | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5:3 | 11 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 7 | Zamora | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 8 | Racing Club Ferrol | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Union | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | 8 |
| 10 | Deportivo Fabril | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:7 | 8 |
| 11 | Pontevedra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 8 |
| 12 | Leonesa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 8 |
| 13 | CD Extremadura | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 | AD Merida | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:12 | 6 |
| 16 | Barakaldo | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 17 | Real Aviles | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 5 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:10 | 2 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:14 | 2 |
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
