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Real Brasilia vs Samambaia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estádio Defelé, Brasília
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Diego Xavier

AI Match Summary

Samambaia in this Brasiliense matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Samambaia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Real Brasilia
15%
Draws
53%
Samambaia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Samambaia have won more games recently than Real Brasilia.
  • Samambaia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Real Brasilia Clean Sheet 12%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Brasilia Samambaia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 0.87 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.52 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Samambaia
0:1
Feb 17, 2025 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Samambaia
1:1
Feb 5, 2024 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Real Brasilia
3:0
Mar 4, 2023 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Samambaia
2:0
Feb 28, 2018 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Samambaia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Brasilia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Samambaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Diego Xavier
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Brasilia 10 / 100
Samambaia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Brasilia Samambaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samambaia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Real Brasilia scored in 52% of their last 31 games.

Real Brasilia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Real Brasilia VS Samambaia
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Brasilia

(Home)
28 Feb
ARUC
1 : 4
Real Brasilia
22 Feb
Brasilia FC (DF)
0 : 2
Real Brasilia
11 Feb
Real Brasilia
0 : 3
Sobradinho
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Ceilandia
2 : 0
Real Brasilia
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Samambaia

(Away)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)