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Real Calepina vs Ponte San Pietro

Italy Italy

Coppa Italia Serie D 2023/2024
Wed, Oct 18, 2023
1 - 0
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Real Calepina play Ponte San Pietro in the Coppa Italia Serie D 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Real Calepina averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. Ponte San Pietro averaged 0.7 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Real Calepina won 3, Ponte San Pietro won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 5, 2024 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Real Calepina and 0.88 for Ponte San Pietro. This points to a Real Calepina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Real Calepina
27%
Draws
20%
Ponte San Pietro
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Real Calepina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Real Calepina picked up more points recently compared to Ponte San Pietro.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Real Calepina Clean Sheet 25%
Ponte San Pietro Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Calepina Ponte San Pietro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 11 4
Draws 8 6
Losses 13 20
Goals Scored 1.19 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Real Calepina vs Ponte San Pietro
3:0
Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Ponte San Pietro vs Real Calepina
0:1
Oct 18, 2023 Coppa Italia Serie D
Real Calepina vs Ponte San Pietro
1:0
Feb 19, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Real Calepina vs Ponte San Pietro
0:0
Oct 16, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Ponte San Pietro vs Real Calepina
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Calepina 53 / 100
Ponte San Pietro 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Calepina Ponte San Pietro

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Real Calepina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Real Calepina & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.7%
2.22
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Real Calepina attacking → ← attacking Ponte San Pietro

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Calepina scored in 81% of their last 32 games.

Ponte San Pietro let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Real Calepina went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Ponte San Pietro lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 18
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00