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Real Madriz vs Rancho Santana

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

77' Event
Guarch T.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera 2025/2026 game between Real Madriz and Rancho Santana finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rancho Santana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Real Madriz
30%
Draws
39%
Rancho Santana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rancho Santana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Rancho Santana come out ahead of Real Madriz on wins alone.
  • Rancho Santana are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Real Madriz Clean Sheet 16%
Rancho Santana Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Madriz Rancho Santana
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 6
Draws 4 6
Losses 21 19
Goals Scored 0.83 0.97
Goals Conceded 2.03 2.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga Primera
Real Madriz vs Rancho Santana
0:1
Feb 24, 2026 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Real Madriz
3:3
Nov 17, 2025 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Real Madriz
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Liga Primera
Real Madriz vs Rancho Santana
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Madriz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Rancho Santana Compare

Top Goalscorer Guarch T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Madriz 28 / 100
Rancho Santana 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Madriz Rancho Santana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rancho Santana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Rancho Santana conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Real Madriz's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Real Madriz stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Real Madriz VS Rancho Santana
0.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Madriz

(Home)
25 Apr
Real Madriz
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
19 Apr
Diriangen
4 : 0
Real Madriz
16 Apr
Jalapa
2 : 0
Real Madriz
12 Apr
Real Madriz
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
09 Apr
Sport Sebaco
2 : 2
Real Madriz
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Rancho Santana

(Away)
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 2
San Marcos
15 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 3
Walter Ferreti
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Diriangen 18 12 3 3 40:19 39
2 Esteli 18 11 4 3 41:19 37
3 Jalapa 18 9 6 3 29:16 33
4 Managua FC 18 8 5 5 22:18 29
5 Matagalpa 18 5 7 6 30:24 22
6 Walter Ferreti 18 5 6 7 18:28 21
7 Sport Sebaco 18 6 2 10 23:24 20
8 UNAN-Managua 18 4 4 10 21:34 16
9 Rancho Santana 18 4 4 10 20:43 16
10 Real Madriz 18 4 3 11 14:33 15
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)