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Real Madriz vs UNAN-Managua

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Real Madriz play UNAN-Managua in the Liga Primera. UNAN-Managua are favorites here. Recently, Real Madriz averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. UNAN-Managua averaged 1 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Real Madriz won 1, UNAN-Managua won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Real Madriz and 1.00 for UNAN-Managua. This points to a UNAN-Managua double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Real Madriz
25%
Draws
60%
UNAN-Managua
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: UNAN-Managua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Real Madriz picked up more points recently compared to UNAN-Managua.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Real Madriz Clean Sheet 23%
UNAN-Managua Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Madriz UNAN-Managua
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 7
Draws 4 5
Losses 21 18
Goals Scored 0.83 1
Goals Conceded 2.03 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Liga Primera
Real Madriz vs UNAN-Managua
1:0
Feb 11, 2026 Liga Primera
UNAN-Managua vs Real Madriz
3:0
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Primera
UNAN-Managua vs Real Madriz
2:1
Aug 16, 2025 Liga Primera
Real Madriz vs UNAN-Managua
0:3
Jul 6, 2025 Copa Primera
UNAN-Managua vs Real Madriz
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Madriz Compare

Top Goalscorer Castro E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

UNAN-Managua Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Madriz 18 / 100
UNAN-Managua 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Madriz UNAN-Managua

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UNAN-Managua Win (2)
Secondary Pick UNAN-Managua & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Real Madriz attacking → ← attacking UNAN-Managua

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Madriz scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

UNAN-Managua let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Real Madriz went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

UNAN-Managua lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

19 Points in last 5 26
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Diriangen18123340:1939
2Esteli18114341:1937
3Jalapa1896329:1633
4Managua FC1885522:1829
5Matagalpa1857630:2422
6Walter Ferreti1856718:2821
7Sport Sebaco18621023:2420
8UNAN-Managua18441021:3416
9Rancho Santana18441020:4316
10Real Madriz18431114:3315