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Real Noroeste vs Capixaba SC

Brazil Brazil

Copa Espirito Santo 2025 Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha, Águia Branca
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Diguda
45' Event
dos Santos Gaspar R.
54' Event
Italo

AI Match Summary

Real Noroeste in this Copa Espirito Santo 2025 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Real Noroeste
35%
Draws
30%
Capixaba SC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Real Noroeste have won more games recently than Capixaba SC.
  • Model gives Real Noroeste a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Real Noroeste have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Capixaba SC, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Real Noroeste Clean Sheet 20%
Capixaba SC Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Noroeste Capixaba SC
Matches Played 31 22
Wins 9 8
Draws 8 3
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.06 0.91
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2026 Capixaba
Capixaba SC vs Real Noroeste
0:2
Jul 14, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Real Noroeste vs Capixaba SC
3:1
Jul 6, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Capixaba SC vs Real Noroeste
1:0
Jun 7, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Real Noroeste vs Capixaba SC
0:1
Feb 8, 2025 Capixaba
Capixaba SC vs Real Noroeste
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Noroeste Compare

Top Goalscorer Italo
2 Goals
Assists Leader dos Santos Gaspar R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Capixaba SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Diguda
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Noroeste 42 / 100
Capixaba SC 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Noroeste Capixaba SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Noroeste has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Capixaba SC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 22 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Capixaba SC has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Real Noroeste VS Capixaba SC
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Noroeste

(Home)
14 Jun
Real Noroeste
0 : 0
Democrata GV
30 May
Vitoria ES
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
23 May
Tombense
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
16 May
Real Noroeste
0 : 0
Rio Branco ES
09 May
Porto-BA
1 : 2
Real Noroeste
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Capixaba SC

(Away)
12 Feb
Capixaba SC
0 : 2
Real Noroeste
08 Feb
Desportiva Ferroviaria
0 : 1
Capixaba SC
04 Feb
Capixaba SC
0 : 2
Rio Branco ES
01 Feb
Vitoria ES
2 : 0
Capixaba SC
29 Jan
Capixaba SC
2 : 1
Vilavelhense
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Vitoria ES 4
Vilavelhense 1
Real Noroeste 3
Capixaba SC 2
Porto Vitoria 5
Serra 1
Desportiva Ferroviaria 2
Rio Branco-VN 0
Semi-finals
Vitoria ES 2
Real Noroeste 0
Porto Vitoria 3
Desportiva Ferroviaria 2
Final
Vitoria ES 3
Porto Vitoria 1