Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Real Noroeste vs Vitoria ES

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha, Águia Branca
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Carlos Vitor
30'
Sub
Vinicinho In: Matheus Recife
Out: Vinicinho
37'
Murilo

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba game between Real Noroeste and Vitoria ES finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vitoria ES.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Real Noroeste
35%
Draws
32%
Vitoria ES
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Vitoria ES carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Real Noroeste Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria ES Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Noroeste Vitoria ES
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 9 16
Draws 8 10
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.84 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Serie D
Vitoria ES vs Real Noroeste
1:1
Apr 11, 2026 Serie D
Real Noroeste vs Vitoria ES
1:3
Jan 30, 2026 Capixaba
Real Noroeste vs Vitoria ES
0:4
Jul 26, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vitoria ES vs Real Noroeste
2:0
Jul 19, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Real Noroeste vs Vitoria ES
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Noroeste Compare

Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Vitoria ES Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlos Vitor
1 Goals
Assists Leader Patrick
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Noroeste 41 / 100
Vitoria ES 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Noroeste Vitoria ES

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Real Noroeste Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Noroeste went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Vitoria ES's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 35 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Real Noroeste scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Real Noroeste VS Vitoria ES
0.8 Goals Scored 1.88
0.6 Goals Conceded 0.88
60% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Noroeste

(Home)
14 Jun
Real Noroeste
0 : 0
Democrata GV
30 May
Vitoria ES
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
23 May
Tombense
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
16 May
Real Noroeste
0 : 0
Rio Branco ES
09 May
Porto-BA
1 : 2
Real Noroeste
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Vitoria ES

(Away)
01 Jul
Vitoria ES
0 : 1
Rio Branco-VN
27 Jun
Betim FC
2 : 0
Vitoria ES
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
20 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Betim FC
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria ES 9 6 2 1 14:4 20
2 Serra 9 4 2 3 10:6 14
3 Vilavelhense 9 4 1 4 8:10 13
4 Rio Branco ES 9 3 4 2 10:6 13
5 Porto Vitoria 9 3 4 2 7:5 13
6 Desportiva Ferroviaria 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
7 Real Noroeste 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
8 Forte 9 2 5 2 5:4 11
9 Capixaba SC 9 3 1 5 6:13 10
10 Rio Branco-VN 9 0 5 4 8:15 5
Promotion - Capixaba (Play Offs)
Relegation - Capixaba 2 2027 (Main)