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Real Sociedad C vs Pasaia

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Real Sociedad C play Pasaia in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. It looks like a close match. Recently, Real Sociedad C averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Pasaia averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Real Sociedad C won 3, Pasaia won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 29, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Real Sociedad C and 1.13 for Pasaia. This points to a Real Sociedad C double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Real Sociedad C
26%
Draws
24%
Pasaia
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Real Sociedad C

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Real Sociedad C picked up more points recently compared to Pasaia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Real Sociedad C Clean Sheet 21%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Sociedad C Pasaia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 7
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.43 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Real Sociedad C vs Pasaia
2:0
Nov 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Real Sociedad C
0:1
May 15, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Real Sociedad C
0:5
Apr 25, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Real Sociedad C vs Pasaia
1:1
Feb 1, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Real Sociedad C vs Pasaia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Sociedad C Compare

Top Goalscorer Larralde X.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arana P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Pasaia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Sociedad C 49 / 100
Pasaia 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Sociedad C Pasaia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Real Sociedad C or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Real Sociedad C attacking → ← attacking Pasaia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Sociedad C scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Pasaia let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Real Sociedad C went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Pasaia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 29
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Portugalete34246470:2978
2Leioa34187950:3461
3Derio341771054:4058
4Lagun Onak341761154:3457
5Touring KE34169947:3557
6Real Sociedad C341741348:3955
7San Ignacio341671137:2755
8Aurrera de Vitoria341661242:4154
9Alaves C341581157:4053
10UD Aretxabaleta341361556:6145
11SCD Durango3411111235:3644
12Santurtzi349121332:4539
13Eibar C34991644:5336
14Pasaia34991626:4636
15Anorga341141937:5934
16Zamudio34961942:5933
17Zarautz KE34862030:6030
18SD Deusto34672126:4925