Sport Picks
Recanatese vs Fossombrone
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati 
Match Events
45'
45'
Scorza C.
90'
90'
Ciccanti D.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Recanatese and Fossombrone finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Recanatese.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Recanatese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Fossombrone come out ahead of Recanatese on wins alone.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Recanatese taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 19%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Recanatese | Fossombrone |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 8 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 0.74 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.59 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Fossombrone
2:0
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Recanatese
1:0
Feb 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Recanatese
4:1
Oct 23, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Fossombrone
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Recanatese Compare
Top Goalscorer Scorza C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ciccanti D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Fossombrone Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Recanatese 85 / 100
Fossombrone 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Recanatese Fossombrone
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Recanatese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recanatese scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Fossombrone conceded in 65% of 31 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.
Recanatese went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recanatese VS Fossombrone
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Recanatese
(Home) 17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1 San Marino Calcio
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0 Fossombrone
26 Apr
Teramo
2 : 2 Recanatese
19 Apr
Recanatese
2 : 0 AS Sora
12 Apr
Maceratese
2 : 1 Recanatese
Page 1 of 6
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1 San Marino Calcio
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0 Fossombrone
19 Apr
Recanatese
2 : 0 AS Sora
02 Apr
Recanatese
2 : 1 Vigor Senigallia
22 Mar
Recanatese
0 : 0 Giulianova
Page 1 of 3
Fossombrone
(Away) 01 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0 Fossombrone
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0 Fossombrone
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1 Fossombrone
12 Apr
Fossombrone
1 : 2 Ancona
Page 1 of 7
01 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0 Fossombrone
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0 Fossombrone
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1 Fossombrone
02 Apr
San Marino Calcio
3 : 0 Fossombrone
22 Mar
Termoli
0 : 0 Fossombrone
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
