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Recanatese vs Fossombrone - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati
Recanatese Logo

Recanatese

2 - 0
FT
Fossombrone Logo

Fossombrone

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Scorza C.
90' Event
Ciccanti D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Recanatese and Fossombrone finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Recanatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Recanatese
30%
Draws
41%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fossombrone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fossombrone come out ahead of Recanatese on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Recanatese taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 20%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Recanatese Fossombrone
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.34 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Fossombrone
2:0
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Recanatese
1:0
Feb 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Recanatese
4:1
Oct 23, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Fossombrone
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Recanatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Scorza C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ciccanti D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Fossombrone Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Recanatese 42 / 100
Fossombrone 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Recanatese Fossombrone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recanatese scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Fossombrone conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recanatese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Recanatese VS Fossombrone
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Recanatese

(Home)
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3
Maceratese
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1
Recanatese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
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Fossombrone

(Away)
07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1
Fossombrone
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1
Fossombrone
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Fossombrone
2 : 4
Lanciano FC
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1
Fossombrone
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)