Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Recanatese vs Roma City

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Fradella A.
27' Event
Mordini D.
53' Event
Zini A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 game between Recanatese and Roma City finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Recanatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Recanatese
35%
Draws
23%
Roma City
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Recanatese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Recanatese carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Recanatese are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 16%
Roma City Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Recanatese Roma City
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 11 9
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.36 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Roma City
2:1
Oct 6, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Roma City vs Recanatese
3:2
Mar 30, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Roma City
2:2
Nov 14, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Roma City vs Recanatese
1:1
Apr 11, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Roma City vs Recanatese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Recanatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Mordini D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zini A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Roma City Compare

Top Goalscorer Fradella A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Recanatese 66 / 100
Roma City 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Recanatese Roma City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Recanatese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recanatese has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Recanatese scored in 76% of their last 33 outings.

Roma City let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Recanatese VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Recanatese

(Home)
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Pietralunga
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1
San Marino Calcio
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Roma City

(Away)
11 May
AS Sora
1 : 0
Roma City
04 May
Roma City
1 : 1
Vigor Senigallia
27 Apr
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0
Roma City
17 Apr
Roma City
1 : 0
Isernia
13 Apr
Castelfidardo
0 : 0
Roma City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sambenedettese 34 21 9 4 61:21 72
2 Aquila Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:31 62
3 Teramo 34 17 9 8 51:33 60
4 Calcio Chieti 34 16 11 7 52:39 58
5 Fossombrone 34 12 14 8 44:36 50
6 Ancona 34 13 8 13 35:40 47
7 Avezzano 34 13 7 14 41:43 46
8 Castelfidardo 34 12 9 13 39:34 45
9 Atletico Ascoli 34 10 13 11 35:39 43
10 Vigor Senigallia 34 9 15 10 36:38 42
11 Termoli 34 9 14 11 37:44 41
12 Recanatese 34 10 10 14 42:53 40
13 AS Sora 34 9 13 12 32:39 40
14 Notaresco Calcio 34 10 8 16 37:45 38
15 Civitanovese Calcio 34 8 13 13 31:39 37
16 Roma City 34 8 11 15 32:36 35
17 Isernia 34 8 10 16 32:57 34
18 Fermana 34 6 11 17 24:42 27
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Out)