Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Recoleta vs Guarani

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Ricardo Gregor, Asunción
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Wlk A.
Assist: Pereira M.
26' Event
Zaracho S.
Assist: Llano J.
27'
Baez W.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Recoleta advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Recoleta
28%
Draws
22%
Guarani
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Recoleta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Recoleta carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Recoleta are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Recoleta have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Guarani, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Guarani have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Recoleta Clean Sheet 68%
Guarani Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Recoleta Guarani
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 10 9
Draws 11 9
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Guarani
2:1
Mar 18, 2026 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Recoleta
3:1
Oct 18, 2025 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Recoleta
2:1
Aug 4, 2025 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Guarani
2:3
May 2, 2025 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Guarani
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Recoleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Wlk A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baez W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Guarani Compare

Top Goalscorer Zaracho S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Recoleta 59 / 100
Guarani 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Recoleta Guarani

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick REC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recoleta scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Guarani let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Recoleta has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Recoleta VS Guarani
1.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Recoleta

(Home)
25 Jul
Recoleta
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
27 May
San Lorenzo
0 : 1
Recoleta
23 May
Recoleta
2 : 1
Guarani
20 May
Dep. Cuenca
2 : 2
Recoleta
15 May
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 2
Recoleta
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Guarani

(Away)
26 Jul
Guarani
1 : 2
Sp. Luqueno
23 May
Recoleta
2 : 1
Guarani
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0
Sportivo Ameliano
11 May
Cerro Porteno
0 : 0
Guarani
03 May
Guarani
0 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Olimpia Asuncion22154337:1749
2Nacional Asuncion22109331:2239
3Cerro Porteno22115630:2238
4Sportivo Ameliano2289527:2133
5Sportivo Trinidense2288630:2432
6Libertad Asuncion2294934:2631
7Guarani2278727:2329
8Recoleta22841035:3228
9Rubio Nu22651115:2623
102 de Mayo22571018:3522
11Sp. Luqueno22551224:3320
12San Lorenzo22361314:4115
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)