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Red Star vs AC Ajaccio

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Bauer, Paris - Saint-Ouen
Fri, Jan 23, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Red Star host AC Ajaccio in the Ligue 2 2025/2026. Red Star go into this one as the clear favorite. Recent numbers: Red Star at 1.39 goals for, 1.36 against; AC Ajaccio at 1.2 for, 1.6 against. Past meetings favor Red Star slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 23, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.20 vs 1.00, favoring Red Star. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Red Star
25%
Draws
35%
AC Ajaccio
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Red Star

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Red Star lately — more wins on the board than AC Ajaccio.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Red Star taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Red Star Clean Sheet 20%
AC Ajaccio Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Red Star AC Ajaccio
Matches Played 28 10
Wins 11 3
Draws 7 3
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.39 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2026 Ligue 2
Red Star vs AC Ajaccio
0:0
Sep 26, 2025 Ligue 2
AC Ajaccio vs Red Star
0:0
Mar 14, 2025 Ligue 2
AC Ajaccio vs Red Star
2:1
Aug 26, 2024 Ligue 2
Red Star vs AC Ajaccio
1:0
Mar 8, 2019 Ligue 2
AC Ajaccio vs Red Star
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Red Star 40 / 100
AC Ajaccio 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Red Star AC Ajaccio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RED Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Red Star scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Solid form: Red Star remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 0.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Red Star VS AC Ajaccio
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Red Star

(Home)
08 Aug
Nantes
0 : 1
Red Star
31 Jul
Amiens SC
3 : 1
Red Star
28 Jul
UNFP
1 : 4
Red Star
25 Jul
Le Havre
2 : 1
Red Star
21 Jul
Red Star
3 : 2
Orleans
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AC Ajaccio

(Away)

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)