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Renate vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 Mino Favini, Meda
Renate Logo

Renate

0 - 3
FT
Casarano Logo

Casarano

Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Cerbone S.
45' Event
Ori R.
Own Goal
45'
Sub
Delcarro A. In: De Zen R.
Out: Delcarro A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-3, with Casarano advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Renate
30%
Draws
34%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Renate

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Renate carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Renate taking it.
  • Renate have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Casarano, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Renate Clean Sheet 10%
Casarano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Renate Casarano
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 17 12
Draws 10 6
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.88 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Renate vs Casarano
0:3
May 10, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Casarano vs Renate
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Renate Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Casarano Compare

Top Goalscorer Cerbone S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Grandolfo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Renate 34 / 100
Casarano 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Renate Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Renate scored in 85% of their last 33 games.

Casarano has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Renate has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Renate VS Casarano
1.88 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Renate

(Home)
13 May
Renate
0 : 3
Casarano
10 May
Casarano
0 : 2
Renate
25 Apr
Renate
2 : 1
Pro Patria
19 Apr
Trento
3 : 3
Renate
13 Apr
Renate
2 : 1
Pro Vercelli
Page 1 of 7

Casarano

(Away)
20 May
Union Brescia
0 : 0
Casarano
17 May
Casarano
0 : 3
Union Brescia
13 May
Renate
0 : 3
Casarano
10 May
Casarano
0 : 2
Renate
06 May
Cosenza
1 : 5
Casarano
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Casertana1
Atalanta U230
Crotone1
Audace Cerignola1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Salernitana-
Cittadella2
Arzignano2
Lumezzane0
Alcione Milano0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Ravenna-
Cosenza-
TBD-
Monopoli0
Casarano2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Renate-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Union Brescia-
Campobasso-
TBD-
Pineto2
Gubbio1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Potenza-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Ascoli-
Juventus U232
Vis Pesaro2
Pianese1
Ternana1
Lecco-
TBD-
Trento1
Giana Erminio2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Catania-
1/16-finals
Casertana1
Crotone1
TBD-
Salernitana-
Cittadella1
Lumezzane0
TBD-
Ravenna-
Cosenza1
Casarano5
TBD-
Renate-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Union Brescia-
Campobasso1
Pineto1
TBD-
Potenza-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Ascoli-
Juventus U230
Pianese2
Lecco2
Giana Erminio1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Catania-
1/8-finals
Casertana3
Salernitana4
Cittadella3
Ravenna3
Casarano3
Renate2
TBD-
Union Brescia-
Campobasso1
Potenza6
TBD-
Ascoli-
Pianese2
Lecco2
TBD-
Catania-
Quarter-finals
Salernitana4
Ravenna0
Casarano0
Union Brescia3
Potenza0
Ascoli1
Lecco3
Catania3
Semi-finals
Salernitana1
Union Brescia3
Ascoli5
Catania2
Final
Union Brescia1
Ascoli4