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Rennes vs Paris FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Roazhon Park, Rennes
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Match Events

46'
Sub
Kebbal I. In: Lopez M.
Out: Kebbal I.
53' Event
Geubbels W.
66'
Sub
Blas L. In: Embolo B.
Out: Blas L.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Rennes and Paris FC finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rennes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Rennes
30%
Draws
43%
Paris FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Paris FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Rennes carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Paris FC's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Rennes Clean Sheet 15%
Paris FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rennes Paris FC
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 11
Draws 4 11
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.72 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Rennes vs Paris FC
2:1
Nov 7, 2025 Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Rennes
0:1
Mar 27, 1974 Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Rennes
0:0
Oct 27, 1973 Ligue 1
Rennes vs Paris FC
1:0
Jan 17, 1973 Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Rennes
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rennes Compare

Top Goalscorer Lepaul E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Paris FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Geubbels W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rennes 11 / 100
Paris FC 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rennes Paris FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paris FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rennes found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Paris FC conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Rennes remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Rennes VS Paris FC
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rennes

(Home)
02 Oct
Laval
1 : 0
Rennes
19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0
Rennes
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
11 Sept
Rennes
1 : 0
Marseille
06 Sept
Angers
1 : 2
Rennes
Page 1 of 6

Paris FC

(Away)
19 Sept
Paris FC
2 : 1
Strasbourg
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
06 Sept
Marseille
2 : 3
Paris FC
30 Aug
Paris FC
3 : 0
Nice
22 Aug
Troyes
0 : 0
Paris FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)