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Stadium Background

Rennes vs Toulouse

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Roazhon Park, Rennes
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Lepaul E.
27' Event
Nordin A.
42'
Demba P.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Rennes and Toulouse finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rennes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Rennes
35%
Draws
10%
Toulouse
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Rennes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Rennes carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 55% — that's where the model lands on Rennes taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Rennes Clean Sheet 16%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rennes Toulouse
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 4 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.72 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Ligue 1
Rennes vs Toulouse
1:0
Oct 29, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Rennes
2:2
May 3, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Rennes
2:1
Nov 10, 2024 Ligue 1
Rennes vs Toulouse
0:2
Apr 13, 2024 Ligue 1
Rennes vs Toulouse
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rennes Compare

Top Goalscorer Nordin A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Toulouse Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rennes 84 / 100
Toulouse 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rennes Toulouse

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rennes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Rennes scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Rennes went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Toulouse let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Rennes VS Toulouse
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Rennes

(Home)
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
11 Sept
Rennes
1 : 0
Marseille
06 Sept
Angers
1 : 2
Rennes
30 Aug
Rennes
3 : 2
Le Mans
23 Aug
Rennes
2 : 2
PSG
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Toulouse

(Away)
12 Sept
Lorient
2 : 2
Toulouse
03 Sept
Toulouse
0 : 1
Lille
29 Aug
Brest
2 : 2
Toulouse
22 Aug
Toulouse
0 : 2
Lyon
15 Aug
Toulouse
1 : 2
Hamburger
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)