Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ried vs Salzburg

Austria Austria

Bundesliga Innviertel Arena, Ried
Fri, Sep 11, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ried host Salzburg in the Bundesliga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Ried at 1.38 goals for, 1.59 against; Salzburg at 1.96 for, 1.07 against. Past meetings favor Salzburg slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 2, 2025, ending 4:1. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.81, favoring Salzburg. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Ried
30%
Draws
51%
Salzburg
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Salzburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Salzburg lately — more wins on the board than Ried.
  • Salzburg are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Salzburg have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Ried Clean Sheet 11%
Salzburg Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ried Salzburg
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 10 13
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1.96
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 2, 2025 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Ried
4:1
Aug 2, 2025 Bundesliga
Ried vs Salzburg
2:2
Oct 12, 2023 Club Friendly
Salzburg vs Ried
1:0
Feb 26, 2023 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Ried
2:0
Sep 10, 2022 Bundesliga
Ried vs Salzburg
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ried 14 / 100
Salzburg 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ried Salzburg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Salzburg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ried scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Salzburg let in goals in 70% of their last 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ried remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ried VS Salzburg
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ried

(Home)
14 Aug
LASK Linz
4 : 1
Ried
09 Aug
Ried
1 : 2
Rapid Vienna
02 Aug
A. Lustenau
1 : 1
Ried
24 Jul
Dornbirn
1 : 5
Ried
18 Jul
Mlada Boleslav
4 : 0
Ried
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Salzburg

(Away)
16 Aug
Tirol
0 : 3
Salzburg
13 Aug
Pafos
3 : 3
Salzburg
09 Aug
Wolfsberger AC
1 : 1
Salzburg
06 Aug
Salzburg
1 : 0
Pafos
01 Aug
Salzburg
1 : 0
Hartberg
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rapid Vienna 3 3 0 0 11:1 9
2 LASK Linz 3 3 0 0 9:1 9
3 Salzburg 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
4 Sturm Graz 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
5 Wolfsberger AC 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
6 A. Lustenau 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
7 Altach 3 1 0 2 3:3 3
8 Austria Vienna 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
9 Grazer AK 3 1 0 2 2:12 3
10 Ried 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
11 Tirol 3 0 1 2 2:7 1
12 Hartberg 3 0 0 3 0:5 0
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation Group)