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Riga FC vs Super Nova - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Virsliga Skonto stadions, Riga
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Match Events

25'
Oulad M'Hand S.
26'
Ndiaye I.
29' Event
Caio Ferreira
Assist: Diop M.

AI Match Summary

Riga FC in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Riga FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Riga FC
30%
Draws
27%
Super Nova
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Riga FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Riga FC lately — more wins on the board than Super Nova.
  • Win probability leans Riga FC's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Riga FC here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Riga FC Clean Sheet 68%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Riga FC Super Nova
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 22 9
Draws 6 4
Losses 2 15
Goals Scored 2.4 0.89
Goals Conceded 1 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Riga FC
0:1
May 24, 2026 Virsliga
Riga FC vs Super Nova
3:0
Apr 14, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Riga FC
1:4
Aug 30, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Riga FC
2:6
Jun 22, 2025 Virsliga
Riga FC vs Super Nova
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Riga FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Caio Ferreira
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diop M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Super Nova Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Riga FC 59 / 100
Super Nova 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Riga FC Super Nova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Riga FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Riga FC found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Riga FC has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Super Nova conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Riga FC VS Super Nova
1.75 Goals Scored 0.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 13%
63% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Riga FC

(Home)
03 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 2
Riga FC
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
11 Sept
Riga FC
2 : 2
FK Auda Riga
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 6

Super Nova

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)