Sport Picks

Latvia

Latvian Cup 2025 Mežaparks Sports Village

Riga Mariners

Sun, Jun 22, 2025

4 - 3

10:00 AM

Valmiera

Our Tip

Match Events

25'

Erglis M.

51'

Grazis A.

(Penalty)

59'

Owusu R.

Assist: Zauska R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Riga Mariners in this Latvian Cup 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Riga Mariners.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Riga Mariners

44%

Draws

20%

Valmiera

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Riga Mariners have won more games recently than Valmiera.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%

Riga Mariners Clean Sheet 20%

Valmiera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Riga Mariners	Valmiera
Matches Played	33	27
Wins	22	16
Draws	7	3
Losses	4	8
Goals Scored	3.25	2
Goals Conceded	0.38	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	3.25	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.38	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Nakotnes liga

Riga Mariners vs Valmiera

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 0 - 3

3:1

Jun 22, 2025 Latvian Cup

Riga Mariners vs Valmiera

Possession: 52% - 41% Cards: 0 - 1

4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Riga Mariners Compare

Top Goalscorer Visnakovs E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.5

Avg xA / game 1.63

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Erglis M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Owusu R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Riga Mariners 36 / 100

Valmiera 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Riga Mariners Valmiera

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAL Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Riga Mariners found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (33 games).

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Defensive concern: Valmiera conceded in 74% of 27 recent games.

Riga Mariners went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Riga Mariners VS Valmiera

3.25 Goals Scored 2

0.38 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 50%

50% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals

Jelgava-

TBD-

RFS-

Speks-

TBD-

FK Alberts-

Riga United-

TBD-

SK Babite-

Iecava-

TBD-

Kekava-Auda-

TBD-

Marupe-

TBD-

FK Metta-

FK Auda Riga-

TBD-

Grobina-

Livani-

TBD-

JFC Viola-

TBD-

Skanste-

Alberts JDFS-

TBD-

FK Smiltene-

TBD-

Super Nova-

Riga FC-

TBD-

Tukums 2000-

Kuivizu Spartaks-

TBD-

Upesciema Warriors-

TBD-

Riga Mariners-

Valmiera8

FK Limbazi0

TBD-

FK Cesis-

TBD-

Ogre United-

Plavinas-

TBD-

Namejs-

Rigas Futbola Skola-

TBD-

Bauskas / Memele-

AFA Olaine-

TBD-

Augsdaugavas-

RSU-

TBD-

LSPA-

Kuldigas/Goldingen-

TBD-

Salaspils FK-

Dienvidkurzemes-

TBD-

DSVK Traktors-

TBD-

Leevon PPK-

TBD-

BFC Daugavpils-

FK Union / JFK Daugava-

TBD-

Lielupe-

TBD-

Rezekne-

Talsi1

Aliance5

TBD-

Valka-

TBD-

JFK Ventspils-

TBD-

FK Liepaja-

1/64-finals

Jelgava-

TBD-

RFS-

Speks4

FK Alberts3

Riga United6

SK Babite0

Iecava1

Kekava-Auda2

TBD-

Marupe-

TBD-

FK Metta-

FK Auda Riga-

TBD-

Grobina-

Livani4

JFC Viola0

TBD-

Skanste-

Alberts JDFS-

TBD-

FK Smiltene-

TBD-

Super Nova-

Riga FC-

TBD-

Tukums 2000-

Kuivizu Spartaks0

Upesciema Warriors5

TBD-

Riga Mariners-

Valmiera6

FK Cesis0

TBD-

Ogre United-

Plavinas4

Namejs0

Rigas Futbola Skola8

Bauskas / Memele0

AFA Olaine-

TBD-

Augsdaugavas-

RSU5

LSPA1

Kuldigas/Goldingen2

Salaspils FK3

Dienvidkurzemes3

DSVK Traktors0

TBD-

Leevon PPK-

TBD-

BFC Daugavpils-

FK Union / JFK Daugava5

Lielupe0

TBD-

Rezekne-

Aliance9

Valka1

TBD-

JFK Ventspils-

TBD-

FK Liepaja-

1/32-finals

Jelgava-

TBD-

RFS-

Speks0

Riga United3

Kekava-Auda0

Marupe3

TBD-

FK Metta-

FK Auda Riga-

TBD-

Grobina-

Livani0

Skanste5

Alberts JDFS5

FK Smiltene3

TBD-

Super Nova-

Riga FC-

TBD-

Tukums 2000-

Upesciema Warriors0

Riga Mariners3

Valmiera4

Ogre United3

Plavinas3

Rigas Futbola Skola2

AFA Olaine3

Augsdaugavas1

RSU0

Salaspils FK6

Dienvidkurzemes1

Leevon PPK2

TBD-

BFC Daugavpils-

FK Union / JFK Daugava4

Rezekne0

Aliance0

JFK Ventspils6

TBD-

FK Liepaja-

1/16-finals

Jelgava-

TBD-

RFS-

Riga United0

Marupe3

TBD-

FK Metta-

FK Auda Riga-

TBD-

Grobina-

Skanste1

Alberts JDFS2

TBD-

Super Nova-

Riga FC-

TBD-

Tukums 2000-

Riga Mariners4

Valmiera3

Plavinas3

AFA Olaine5

Salaspils FK4

Leevon PPK5

TBD-

BFC Daugavpils-

FK Union / JFK Daugava1

JFK Ventspils3

TBD-

FK Liepaja-

1/8-finals

Jelgava0

RFS1

Marupe1

FK Metta4

FK Auda Riga1

Grobina0

Alberts JDFS1

Super Nova3

Riga FC4

Tukums 20000

Riga Mariners6

AFA Olaine1

Leevon PPK2

BFC Daugavpils4

JFK Ventspils0

FK Liepaja2

Quarter-finals

RFS3

FK Metta2

FK Auda Riga3

Super Nova1

Riga FC10

Riga Mariners0

BFC Daugavpils1

FK Liepaja2

Semi-finals

RFS0

FK Auda Riga2

Riga FC4

FK Liepaja0

Final

FK Auda Riga2

Riga FC1