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Stadium Background

Rijeka vs Istra 1961 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Nasraoui M.
Own Goal
43' Event
Puljic J.
Penalty Missed
43' Event
Puljic J.

AI Match Summary

The HNL game between Rijeka and Istra 1961 finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rijeka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Rijeka
30%
Draws
31%
Istra 1961
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rijeka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Rijeka come out ahead of Istra 1961 on wins alone.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Rijeka taking it.
  • Regular HNL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Rijeka Clean Sheet 12%
Istra 1961 Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rijeka Istra 1961
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 6 8
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.48 1.59
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 HNL
Rijeka vs Istra 1961
3:2
May 17, 2026 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Rijeka
0:0
Mar 15, 2026 HNL
Rijeka vs Istra 1961
0:2
Jan 20, 2026 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Rijeka
1:2
Sep 27, 2025 HNL
Rijeka vs Istra 1961
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rijeka Compare

Top Goalscorer Puljic J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fruk T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Istra 1961 Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaganjac H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Frederiksen E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rijeka 47 / 100
Istra 1961 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rijeka Istra 1961

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rijeka Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rijeka found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Istra 1961 let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Rijeka went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rijeka VS Istra 1961
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Rijeka

(Home)
26 Sept
Rijeka
0 : 1
Union Berlin
20 Sept
Rijeka
3 : 0
Hajduk Split
16 Sept
Vrbovec
0 : 6
Rijeka
12 Sept
Lok. Zagreb
1 : 1
Rijeka
05 Sept
Rijeka
4 : 1
Osijek
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Istra 1961

(Away)
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
13 Sept
Istra 1961
3 : 2
Rudes
08 Sept
Zagorec Krapina
0 : 5
Istra 1961
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
29 Aug
Istra 1961
2 : 2
Din. Zagreb
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5:12 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 10:24 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)