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Rincon vs Motril

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Diaz S.
57'
Illescas F.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024 game between Rincon and Motril finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rincon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Rincon
30%
Draws
18%
Motril
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rincon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Motril come out ahead of Rincon on wins alone.
  • Rincon are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Rincon Clean Sheet 19%
Motril Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rincon Motril
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 6 16
Draws 7 15
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 0.87 1.49
Goals Conceded 1.57 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Rincon vs Motril
1:0
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Rincon
1:1
Apr 28, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Rincon vs Motril
3:4
Dec 6, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Rincon
4:2
Apr 29, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Rincon vs Motril
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rincon Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Motril Compare

Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rincon 40 / 100
Motril 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rincon Motril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rincon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Solid form: Rincon remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Rincon's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Motril has conceded goals in 59% of their last 39 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Motril
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rincon

(Home)
17 Aug
Rincon
0 : 1
El Palo
10 May
Rincon
1 : 0
Motril
05 May
Huetor Vega
1 : 3
Rincon
01 May
Rincon
0 : 3
Huetor Tajar
27 Apr
Arenas Armilla
1 : 2
Rincon
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Motril

(Away)
09 Sept
Motril
0 : 2
Recreativo Huelva
05 Sept
Huetor Vega
0 : 0
Motril
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
31 May
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Motril
24 May
Motril
0 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Torremolinos 34 23 7 4 65:23 76
2 Jaen 34 22 7 5 66:28 73
3 Malaga B 34 19 10 5 54:20 67
4 Almeria B 34 19 10 5 75:28 67
5 Torre del Mar 34 18 8 8 44:30 62
6 Motril 34 13 11 10 36:23 50
7 Arenas Armilla 34 14 6 14 34:39 48
8 CP Almeria 34 11 13 10 39:37 46
9 Huetor Vega 34 13 7 14 40:41 46
10 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 11 10 13 46:46 43
11 Mancha 34 9 12 13 41:43 39
12 CD Torreperogil 34 9 11 14 32:41 38
13 Ejido 34 7 16 11 30:41 37
14 Huetor Tajar 34 7 14 13 25:39 35
15 Malaga Juniors 34 7 12 15 27:47 33
16 Maracena 34 6 13 15 29:50 31
17 Rincon 34 6 10 18 30:54 28
18 Atletico Melilla 34 0 7 27 18:101 4
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024 (Play Offs)