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Rio Branco ES vs Serra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Espirito Santo Estadio Mario Monteiro (Sumare), Cachoeiro de Itapemirim
Rio Branco ES Logo

Rio Branco ES

1 - 0
FT
Serra Logo

Serra

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Breninho
43'
Matheus Guara
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Rio Branco ES
20%
Draws
7%
Serra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Rio Branco ES

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Serra have won more games recently than Rio Branco ES.
  • Win probability leans Rio Branco ES's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Serra arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Rio Branco ES, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Rio Branco ES Clean Sheet 20%
Serra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rio Branco ES Serra
Matches Played 36 32
Wins 13 17
Draws 13 3
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.31 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.08 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.10
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Rio Branco ES vs Serra
1:0
Jan 13, 2026 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs Serra
0:0
Apr 29, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Serra vs Rio Branco ES
3:3
Jan 27, 2024 Capixaba
Serra vs Rio Branco ES
1:2
Feb 3, 2023 Capixaba
Serra vs Rio Branco ES
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rio Branco ES Compare

Top Goalscorer Breninho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Serra Compare

Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rio Branco ES 85 / 100
Serra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rio Branco ES Serra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rio Branco ES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rio Branco ES scored in 69% of their last 36 games.

Serra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Rio Branco ES has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Rio Branco ES VS Serra
0.88 Goals Scored 0.83
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Rio Branco ES

(Home)
27 Jun
Uberlandia
2 : 2
Rio Branco ES
21 Jun
Rio Branco ES
0 : 2
Uberlandia
14 Jun
Rio Branco ES
4 : 0
Porto-BA
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
03 Jun
Audax Sao Mateus
0 : 4
Rio Branco ES
Page 1 of 8

Serra

(Away)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Porto Vitoria 7 5 1 1 14:5 16
2 Vitoria ES 7 4 1 2 16:8 13
3 Vilavelhense 7 4 1 2 10:8 13
4 Rio Branco-VN 7 4 1 2 6:4 13
5 Rio Branco ES 7 3 2 2 11:7 11
6 Sport-ES 7 2 0 5 3:13 6
7 Serra 7 1 1 5 6:10 4
8 Audax Sao Mateus 7 1 1 5 2:13 4
Promotion - Copa Espirito Santo (Play Offs)