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Rio Maior SC vs Sertanense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior
Sun, Feb 19, 2023
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rio Maior SC host Sertanense in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023. This has Sertanense written all over it on paper. Rio Maior SC have averaged 0.59 scored and 2 conceded recently, against Sertanense's 0.73 scored and 1.17 conceded. Head-to-head, Rio Maior SC have won 0 to Sertanense's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 19, 2023, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.04 xG vs 0.93) point toward Sertanense. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Rio Maior SC
30%
Draws
47%
Sertanense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sertanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sertanense lately — more wins on the board than Rio Maior SC.
  • Model gives Rio Maior SC a 23% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 8%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Rio Maior SC Clean Sheet 68%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rio Maior SC Sertanense
Matches Played 17 30
Wins 1 5
Draws 3 11
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.59 0.73
Goals Conceded 2 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 19, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Rio Maior SC vs Sertanense
0:0
Nov 6, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Rio Maior SC
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rio Maior SC 77 / 100
Sertanense 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rio Maior SC Sertanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rio Maior SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sertanense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Away concern: Sertanense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Rio Maior SC found the back of the net in 47% of recent matches (17 games).

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sertanense
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Rio Maior SC

(Home)
29 Jan
Pero Pinheiro
3 : 0
Rio Maior SC
22 Jan
Rio Maior SC
2 : 3
GD Coruchense
15 Jan
Sintrense
4 : 0
Rio Maior SC
08 Jan
Santarem
5 : 1
Rio Maior SC
17 Dec
Rio Maior SC
1 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 4

Sertanense

(Away)
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0
Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 1º Dezembro 25 15 5 5 37:19 50
2 Pero Pinheiro 25 15 7 4 34:24 49
3 Santarem 25 13 9 3 40:14 48
4 Marinhense 25 12 6 7 31:24 42
5 SB Castelo Branco 25 10 10 5 33:27 40
6 Mortagua FC 25 9 9 7 41:38 36
7 Sertanense 25 9 9 7 30:25 36
8 Sintrense 25 10 9 7 34:25 36
9 GD Coruchense 25 8 9 9 30:28 30
10 Uniao Da Serra 25 9 3 13 31:40 30
11 GS Loures 25 6 7 12 26:41 25
12 Arronches Benfica 25 5 4 16 15:39 19
13 Alcains 25 4 2 19 23:47 14
14 Rio Maior SC 0 1 0 12 0:0 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 (Promotion Group)