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Riograndense vs SC Sao Paulo

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho 3 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

79' Event
Gomes V.

AI Match Summary

The Gaucho 3 2025 game between Riograndense and SC Sao Paulo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SC Sao Paulo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Riograndense
15%
Draws
59%
SC Sao Paulo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SC Sao Paulo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • SC Sao Paulo's 1.26 goals per match outpaces what Riograndense have produced (1.17).
  • SC Sao Paulo are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Gaucho 3 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Riograndense Clean Sheet 16%
SC Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Riograndense SC Sao Paulo
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.17 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 Gaucho 3
SC Sao Paulo vs Riograndense
3:1
Oct 26, 2025 Gaucho 3
Riograndense vs SC Sao Paulo
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Gaucho 3
SC Sao Paulo vs Riograndense
0:0
Oct 13, 2024 Gaucho 3
Riograndense vs SC Sao Paulo
4:1
Oct 7, 2024 Gaucho 3
SC Sao Paulo vs Riograndense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Riograndense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

SC Sao Paulo Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Riograndense 11 / 100
SC Sao Paulo 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Riograndense SC Sao Paulo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SC Sao Paulo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SC Sao Paulo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Riograndense scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Riograndense has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Riograndense VS SC Sao Paulo
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Riograndense

(Home)
03 Oct
Panambi
1 : 0
Riograndense
30 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
3 : 1
Riograndense
27 Sept
Riograndense
2 : 1
SC Rio Grande
19 Sept
Futvida
0 : 0
Riograndense
12 Sept
Real SC
3 : 0
Riograndense
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SC Sao Paulo

(Away)
30 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
3 : 1
Riograndense
27 Sept
Panambi
1 : 0
SC Sao Paulo
20 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
2 : 1
Farroupilha
13 Sept
SC Rio Grande
0 : 2
SC Sao Paulo
06 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
1 : 2
Cruz Alta
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 EC Guarani 8 8 0 0 25:3 24
2 Apafut 8 4 2 2 18:10 16
3 Clube 1992 8 1 4 3 8:14 9
4 Nova Prata 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
5 EC Novo Horizonte 8 0 2 6 1:23 0
Promotion - Gaucho 3 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Sao Paulo 6 5 1 0 11:1 16
2 SC Rio Grande 6 3 0 3 6:6 9
3 Riograndense 6 2 2 2 11:3 8
4 Sao Gabriel 6 0 1 5 2:20 1
Promotion - Gaucho 3 2025 (Play Offs)