Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Rochdale vs York City

England England

FA Cup Spotland Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rochdale play York City in the FA Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Rochdale averaged 1.84 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. York City averaged 2.39 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. In past meetings, Rochdale won 0, York City won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Rochdale and 1.56 for York City. This points to a York City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Rochdale
17%
Draws
45%
York City
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: York City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Rochdale picked up more points recently compared to York City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Rochdale Clean Sheet 15%
York City Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rochdale York City
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 21 22
Draws 6 3
Losses 4 3
Goals Scored 1.84 2.39
Goals Conceded 1.06 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 National League
Rochdale vs York City
1:1
Nov 11, 2025 National League
York City vs Rochdale
4:1
Oct 11, 2025 FA Cup
Rochdale vs York City
1:2
Mar 25, 2025 National League
Rochdale vs York City
0:4
Aug 20, 2024 National League
York City vs Rochdale
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rochdale Compare

Top Goalscorer Dieseruvwe E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

York City Compare

Top Goalscorer Newby A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rochdale 37 / 100
York City 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rochdale York City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: York City or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Rochdale attacking → ← attacking York City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rochdale scored in 97% of their last 31 games.

York City let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Rochdale went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

York City lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

69 Points in last 5 69
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63