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Rochedale U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland U23
Rochedale U23 Logo

Rochedale U23

3 - 1
FT
Moreton City Excelsior U23 Logo

Moreton City Excelsior U23

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Rochedale U23
15%
Draws
32%
Moreton City Excelsior U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rochedale U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Rochedale U23 have won more games recently than Moreton City Excelsior U23.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Rochedale U23 taking it.
  • Rochedale U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Rochedale U23, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).
  • History favors Rochedale U23 here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Rochedale U23 Clean Sheet 10%
Moreton City Excelsior U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rochedale U23 Moreton City Excelsior U23
Matches Played 24 25
Wins 18 15
Draws 2 2
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 2.75 2.56
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Rochedale U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23
2:0
Aug 28, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Rochedale U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23
3:1
Jul 1, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Rochedale U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23
1:3
Mar 21, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Moreton City Excelsior U23 vs Rochedale U23
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rochedale U23 83 / 100
Moreton City Excelsior U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rochedale U23 Moreton City Excelsior U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rochedale U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rochedale U23's goal record stands at 96% scoring rate across 24 recent games.

Rochedale U23 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Moreton City Excelsior U23 has conceded goals in 76% of their last 25 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Rochedale U23 VS Moreton City Excelsior U23
2.38 Goals Scored 2.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
88% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rochedale U23

(Home)
13 Sept
Rochedale U23
2 : 0
Moreton City Excelsior U23
28 Aug
Rochedale U23
3 : 1
Moreton City Excelsior U23
16 Aug
Olympic FC U23
1 : 3
Rochedale U23
08 Aug
Magic United TFA FC U23
1 : 4
Rochedale U23
01 Aug
Rochedale U23
3 : 1
Eastern Suburbs U23
Page 1 of 5

Moreton City Excelsior U23

(Away)
13 Sept
Rochedale U23
2 : 0
Moreton City Excelsior U23
06 Sept
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 1
Gold Coast Knights SC U23
28 Aug
Rochedale U23
3 : 1
Moreton City Excelsior U23
16 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 2
Queensland Lions U23
08 Aug
Olympic FC U23
1 : 2
Moreton City Excelsior U23
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rochedale U23 3
Moreton City Excelsior U23 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Queensland Lions U23 2
Gold Coast Knights SC U23 3
Semi-finals
Rochedale U23 -
TBD -
Moreton City Excelsior U23 3
Gold Coast Knights SC U23 1
Final
Rochedale U23 2
Moreton City Excelsior U23 0