Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Roda vs Waalwijk

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Marsman B.
Assist: Deom J.
56'
Sub
Sleegers J. In: Seedorf C.
Out: Sleegers J.
56'
Sub
Deom J. In: van den Berg X.
Out: Deom J.

AI Match Summary

Roda in this Eerste Divisie matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Roda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Roda
35%
Draws
36%
Waalwijk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Waalwijk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Roda haven't matched Waalwijk's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Waalwijk a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Roda Clean Sheet 16%
Waalwijk Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Roda Waalwijk
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 10 12
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.5 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Waalwijk vs Roda
2:1
Apr 28, 2026 Eredivisie
Roda vs Waalwijk
1:1
Feb 13, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Roda
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Roda vs Waalwijk
1:4
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Roda vs Waalwijk
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Roda Compare

Top Goalscorer Marsman B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Seedorf C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Waalwijk Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Roda 19 / 100
Waalwijk 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Roda Waalwijk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waalwijk Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waalwijk has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Roda went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Roda scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Roda VS Waalwijk
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Roda

(Home)
18 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 0
Roda
12 Sept
Roda
1 : 0
Vitesse
06 Sept
Maastricht
1 : 1
Roda
28 Aug
Roda
2 : 2
NAC Breda
21 Aug
Dordrecht
0 : 1
Roda
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Waalwijk

(Away)
18 Sept
Waalwijk
6 : 1
Maastricht
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Waalwijk
4 : 2
NAC Breda
28 Aug
Waalwijk
2 : 2
Jong PSV
21 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1
Waalwijk
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 7 6 0 1 24:10 18
2 Almere City 8 5 1 2 18:7 16
3 Venlo 7 5 0 2 19:11 15
4 Waalwijk 7 3 4 0 18:9 13
5 Vitesse 7 4 1 2 13:9 13
6 Maastricht 7 4 1 2 10:15 13
7 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
8 Roda 7 3 3 1 7:5 12
9 FC Emmen 7 4 0 3 17:17 12
10 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
11 NAC Breda 7 3 1 3 13:15 10
12 Eindhoven FC 7 3 1 3 11:13 10
13 FC Volendam 7 3 0 4 17:14 9
14 Helmond Sport 7 2 2 3 13:12 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 12:23 7
18 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
19 TOP Oss 7 2 0 5 8:12 6
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 8:20 4
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)