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Rondinella vs SCD Progresso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Bortolotti G.
53' Event
Simonetti L.
63' Event
Shenaj V.

AI Match Summary

Rondinella in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Rondinella.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Rondinella
15%
Draws
36%
SCD Progresso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rondinella

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to SCD Progresso lately — more wins on the board than Rondinella.
  • Model gives Rondinella a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 78.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Rondinella Clean Sheet 68%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rondinella SCD Progresso
Matches Played 6 29
Wins 1 10
Draws 2 5
Losses 3 14
Goals Scored 0.83 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.46
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Rondinella vs SCD Progresso
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rondinella Compare

Top Goalscorer Simonetti L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shenaj V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

SCD Progresso Compare

Top Goalscorer Bortolotti G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rondinella 77 / 100
SCD Progresso 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rondinella SCD Progresso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rondinella Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SCD Progresso has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

SCD Progresso lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Rondinella scored in 50% of their last 6 games.

Scoring Trends

Rondinella VS SCD Progresso
0.71 Goals Scored 1.5
1.43 Goals Conceded 1.38
57% Over 1.5 100%
57% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Rondinella

(Home)
04 Oct
Rondinella
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
27 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Rondinella
20 Sept
Rondinella
0 : 0
Lucchese
16 Sept
Scandicci
3 : 0
Rondinella
13 Sept
Rondinella
1 : 3
Prato
Page 1 of 2

SCD Progresso

(Away)
04 Oct
Rondinella
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0
SCD Progresso
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3
Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1
Scandicci
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Follonica Gavorrano 6 4 2 0 9:3 14
2 Prato 6 4 2 0 9:4 14
3 Lucchese 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
4 Tau 6 4 0 2 10:12 12
5 Scandicci 6 3 2 1 10:5 11
6 Flaminia 6 3 2 1 9:9 11
7 Seravezza Pozzi 6 3 1 2 14:5 10
8 Siena 6 3 1 2 13:8 10
9 Ternana 6 2 2 2 9:5 8
10 Terranuova Traiana 6 2 2 2 11:9 8
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Montevarchi 6 2 1 3 9:11 7
13 Mezzolara 6 1 4 1 4:6 7
14 Rondinella 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
15 Sasso Marconi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
16 SCD Progresso 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
17 Grassina 6 0 2 4 6:13 2
18 Ghiviborgo 6 0 1 5 3:10 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)