Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Rouen vs Caen

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Labonne R.
Assist: Hafid M.
46'
Sub
Faye S. In: Fuss V.
Out: Faye S.
46'
Sub
Renel S. In: Rocha Santos K.
Out: Renel S.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this National 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Rouen
15%
Draws
40%
Caen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rouen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Caen at 1.7 per game, Rouen at 1.33.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Rouen taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Rouen Clean Sheet 68%
Caen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rouen Caen
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 11 9
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.33 1.7
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2026 Ligue 3
Caen vs Rouen
3:2
Mar 27, 2026 Ligue 3
Rouen vs Caen
1:1
Oct 21, 2025 Ligue 3
Caen vs Rouen
1:1
Jul 9, 2013 Club Friendly
Caen vs Rouen
0:0
May 12, 2004 Ligue 2
Rouen vs Caen
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rouen Compare

Top Goalscorer Rocha Santos K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer Labonne R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rouen 68 / 100
Caen 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rouen Caen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rouen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rouen scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Caen conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Rouen has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Rouen VS Caen
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rouen

(Home)
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0
Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Thionville
0 : 4
Rouen
03 Sept
Rouen
1 : 1
Valenciennes
29 Aug
Villefranche
0 : 2
Rouen
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Caen

(Away)
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 0
Caen
12 Sept
Caen
2 : 0
Paris 13 Atletico
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2
Caen
27 Aug
Caen
0 : 1
Bastia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 52:25 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 51:26 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 43:29 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 47:30 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 46:34 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 42:42 51
7 Le Puy-en-Velay 32 12 11 9 45:38 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 39:34 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 32:37 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 35:44 37
11 Aubagne FC 32 9 10 13 38:46 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 34:45 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 34:45 33
14 Paris 13 Atletico 32 7 11 14 26:41 32
15 Bourg Peronnas 32 8 7 17 25:44 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 35:49 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 35:50 27
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)