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Rugenbergen vs Sasel - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Oberliga Hamburg 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Gomes P.
54' Event
Sherbourne J.
90' Event
Ghubasaryan A.

AI Match Summary

The Oberliga Hamburg 2023/2024 game between Rugenbergen and Sasel finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sasel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Rugenbergen
30%
Draws
12%
Sasel
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rugenbergen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sasel come out ahead of Rugenbergen on wins alone.
  • Rugenbergen are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Oberliga Hamburg 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Rugenbergen Clean Sheet 10%
Sasel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rugenbergen Sasel
Matches Played 30 38
Wins 8 18
Draws 3 7
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 1.33 2.37
Goals Conceded 2.43 2.11
Expected Goals (xG) 2.23 2.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2024 Oberliga Hamburg
Sasel vs Rugenbergen
3:3
Nov 5, 2023 Oberliga Hamburg
Rugenbergen vs Sasel
1:2
May 5, 2023 Oberliga Hamburg
Sasel vs Rugenbergen
3:0
Nov 13, 2022 Oberliga Hamburg
Rugenbergen vs Sasel
3:1
Oct 18, 2020 Oberliga Hamburg
Sasel vs Rugenbergen
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rugenbergen Compare

Top Goalscorer Sherbourne J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.72
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sasel Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ghubasaryan A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.86
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rugenbergen 56 / 100
Sasel 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rugenbergen Sasel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rugenbergen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Sasel conceded in 84% of 38 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Rugenbergen scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Rugenbergen has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sasel
0 Goals Scored 3
0 Goals Conceded 3.25
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Rugenbergen

(Home)
17 May
Rugenbergen
1 : 1
HEBC Hamburg
11 May
Sasel
3 : 3
Rugenbergen
26 Apr
SC Victoria Hamburg
5 : 0
Rugenbergen
21 Apr
Rugenbergen
3 : 0
Tornesch
14 Apr
Rugenbergen
0 : 3
Altona
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Sasel

(Away)
02 Oct
SC Victoria Hamburg
2 : 2
Sasel
27 Sept
Sasel
0 : 1
Vorwarts-Wacker
20 Sept
HT 16
2 : 0
Sasel
13 Sept
Sasel
0 : 3
Niendorfer TSV
06 Sept
Paloma
3 : 2
Sasel
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Altona 34 25 7 2 91:29 82
2 Dassendorf 34 24 5 5 96:36 77
3 ETSV Hamburg 34 18 9 7 74:43 63
4 Niendorfer TSV 34 18 8 8 86:51 62
5 HEBC Hamburg 34 16 11 7 75:52 59
6 Sasel 34 16 8 10 76:54 56
7 Paloma 34 14 8 12 58:56 50
8 SC Victoria Hamburg 34 14 7 13 79:67 49
9 Suderelbe 34 13 9 12 85:61 48
10 TSV Buchholz 08 34 13 7 14 65:65 46
11 Harksheide 34 12 10 12 61:63 46
12 Halstenbek-Rellingen 34 11 9 14 70:70 42
13 TSV Concordia 34 11 6 17 71:91 39
14 Alsterbruder 34 10 4 20 70:91 34
15 Turkiye Wilhelmsburg 34 9 5 20 57:82 32
16 Rugenbergen 34 9 3 22 46:84 30
17 Tornesch 34 6 6 22 43:106 24
18 Duneberg 34 5 2 27 39:141 17
Promotion - Oberliga NOFV-Nord 2024/2025 (Play Offs)