Sport Picks

Stadium Background

RW Essen vs Greuther Furth

Germany Germany

2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Alonso J.
17'
Hrgota B.
26'
Dehm J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with RW Essen advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
RW Essen
20%
Draws
19%
Greuther Furth
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: RW Essen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • RW Essen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on RW Essen taking it.
  • RW Essen have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor RW Essen, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
RW Essen Clean Sheet 12%
Greuther Furth Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RW Essen Greuther Furth
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 17 12
Draws 1 5
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 2.29 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 26, 2026 2. Bundesliga
Greuther Furth vs RW Essen
2:0
May 22, 2026 2. Bundesliga
RW Essen vs Greuther Furth
1:0
May 6, 2007 2. Bundesliga
Greuther Furth vs RW Essen
0:2
Dec 1, 2006 2. Bundesliga
RW Essen vs Greuther Furth
1:0
May 8, 2005 2. Bundesliga
RW Essen vs Greuther Furth
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RW Essen Compare

Top Goalscorer Musel T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Greuther Furth Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RW Essen 83 / 100
Greuther Furth 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RW Essen Greuther Furth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RW Essen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RW Essen found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

RW Essen has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Greuther Furth conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

RW Essen VS Greuther Furth
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

RW Essen

(Home)
12 Sept
RW Essen
6 : 2
Wurzburger Kickers
05 Sept
RW Essen
1 : 0
FC Viktoria Koln
29 Aug
Wehen
0 : 0
RW Essen
23 Aug
RW Essen
2 : 0
St. Pauli
15 Aug
RW Essen
1 : 0
TSV Havelse
Page 1 of 6

Greuther Furth

(Away)
12 Sept
Bochum
1 : 1
Greuther Furth
06 Sept
Greuther Furth
0 : 1
Heidenheim
29 Aug
Energie Cottbus
3 : 4
Greuther Furth
23 Aug
Greuther Furth
1 : 2
Bochum
15 Aug
Greuther Furth
2 : 4
Nurnberg
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Greuther Furth 2
RW Essen 1