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Rwanda vs Kenya - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Stade Amahoro, Kigali
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Gueulette S. In: Bizimana D.
Out: Gueulette S.
46'
Sub
Obed U. In: Byiringiro L.
Out: Obed U.
46'
Sub
Muhire K. In: Hamiss H.
Out: Muhire K.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Rwanda and Kenya finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Rwanda
35%
Draws
21%
Kenya
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Rwanda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Rwanda carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Rwanda's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 53.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Rwanda Clean Sheet 68%
Kenya Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rwanda Kenya
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 12 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.07 1.12
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.66 0.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 Friendly International
Rwanda vs Kenya
0:0
Nov 15, 2021 World Championship
Kenya vs Rwanda
2:1
Sep 5, 2021 World Championship
Rwanda vs Kenya
1:1
Dec 3, 2017 CECAFA Championship
Kenya vs Rwanda
2:0
Dec 1, 2015 CECAFA Championship
Rwanda vs Kenya
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rwanda 50 / 100
Kenya 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rwanda Kenya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rwanda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rwanda went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Kenya conceded in 65% of 26 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Attacking prowess: Rwanda scored in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Rwanda VS Kenya
1.57 Goals Scored 0.5
0.29 Goals Conceded 1.75
57% Over 1.5 50%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Rwanda

(Home)
05 Oct
Rwanda
0 : 0
Kenya
29 Sept
Cape Verde
1 : 2
Rwanda
25 Sept
Rwanda
3 : 1
Liberia
30 Mar
Rwanda
2 : 0
Estonia
27 Mar
Rwanda
4 : 0
Grenada
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Kenya

(Away)
05 Oct
Rwanda
0 : 0
Kenya
01 Oct
Guinea
1 : 0
Kenya
26 Sept
Kenya
1 : 1
Eritrea
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
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