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S. Agata vs San Luca

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Carrozzo G.
15' Event
Aquino F.
37' Event
Bukva A.

AI Match Summary

S. Agata in this Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored S. Agata.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
S. Agata
20%
Draws
30%
San Luca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: S. Agata

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • S. Agata have won more games recently than San Luca.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on S. Agata taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
S. Agata Clean Sheet 18%
San Luca Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric S. Agata San Luca
Matches Played 40 29
Wins 12 5
Draws 12 10
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.52 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group I
San Luca vs S. Agata
1:0
Nov 5, 2023 Serie D - Group I
S. Agata vs San Luca
4:2
Feb 12, 2023 Serie D - Group I
San Luca vs S. Agata
0:2
Oct 16, 2022 Serie D - Group I
S. Agata vs San Luca
4:1
Apr 3, 2022 Serie D - Group I
S. Agata vs San Luca
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

S. Agata Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrozzo G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aquino F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

San Luca Compare

Top Goalscorer Bukva A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dampha A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

S. Agata 76 / 100
San Luca 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
S. Agata San Luca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick S. Agata Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

S. Agata found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (40 games).

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

San Luca let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

S. Agata went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

S. Agata VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

S. Agata

(Home)
11 May
AS Acireale
2 : 2
S. Agata
04 May
Castrumfavara
0 : 2
S. Agata
27 Apr
S. Agata
1 : 3
Scafatese
17 Apr
Sancataldese
2 : 1
S. Agata
13 Apr
S. Agata
1 : 1
Pompei
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San Luca

(Away)
12 May
San Luca
0 : 2
Locri 1909
05 May
Canicatti
4 : 2
San Luca
28 Apr
San Luca
0 : 1
Real Casalnuovo
21 Apr
Akragas
1 : 2
San Luca
14 Apr
San Luca
0 : 1
Vibonese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trapani 34 30 4 0 95:15 94
2 Siracusa 34 25 6 3 79:26 81
3 Vibonese 34 22 6 6 67:29 72
4 Reggina 34 19 8 7 54:25 65
5 AS Acireale 34 15 9 10 39:41 54
6 S. Agata 34 15 7 12 46:35 52
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 15 6 13 52:49 51
8 USD Ragusa 34 14 8 12 41:38 50
9 Canicatti 34 14 6 14 55:51 48
10 Igea Virtus 34 13 6 15 38:40 45
11 Licata 34 12 7 15 43:54 43
12 Akragas 34 12 6 16 42:53 42
13 Sancataldese 34 9 10 15 32:43 37
14 Portici 1906 34 8 8 18 32:55 32
15 San Luca 34 6 12 16 37:55 29
16 Locri 1909 34 7 7 20 34:68 28
17 Castrovillari 34 2 12 20 29:76 17
18 Nuova Gioiese 34 3 2 29 18:80 11
19 Lamezia Terme 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)