Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

Premier League Bank Respublika Arena

Kapaz

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sabah Baku play Kapaz in the Premier League. Sabah Baku are favorites here. Recently, Sabah Baku averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Kapaz averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. In past meetings, Sabah Baku won 2, Kapaz won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 8, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.60 for Sabah Baku and 0.72 for Kapaz. This points to a Sabah Baku double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%

Sabah Baku

15%

Draws

26%

Kapaz

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sabah Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

Sabah Baku picked up more points recently compared to Kapaz.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.60 vs 0.72 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Sabah Baku Clean Sheet 27%

Kapaz Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sabah Baku	Kapaz
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	21	9
Draws	6	4
Losses	3	17
Goals Scored	2.4	0.9
Goals Conceded	1.1	1.47
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Premier League

Sabah Baku vs Kapaz

Possession: 53% - 56% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Feb 22, 2026 Premier League

Sabah Baku vs Kapaz

Possession: 54% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Nov 9, 2025 Premier League

Kapaz vs Sabah Baku

Possession: 49% - 52% Cards: 2 - 3

1:3

Apr 6, 2025 Premier League

Sabah Baku vs Kapaz

Possession: 46% - 52% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Jan 31, 2025 Premier League

Kapaz vs Sabah Baku

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 1 - 3

3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sabah Baku Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Kapaz Compare

Top Goalscorer Haciyev R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.52

Avg xA / game 0.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabah Baku 59 / 100

Kapaz 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sabah Baku Kapaz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabah Baku Win (1)

Secondary Pick Sabah Baku & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.6%

1.96

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sabah Baku attacking → ← attacking Kapaz

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sabah Baku scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Kapaz let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Sabah Baku went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Kapaz lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

69 Points in last 5 31

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.57

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.57

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sabah Baku	33	24	6	3	75:25	78
2	Qarabag Agdam	33	21	6	6	71:27	69
3	Turan	33	17	8	8	44:27	59
4	Neftci Baku	33	16	11	6	57:32	59
5	Zira FK	33	13	14	6	43:36	53
6	Araz PFK	33	13	7	13	44:58	46
7	SumQayit FK	33	12	5	16	45:49	41
8	Shamakhi	33	9	11	13	31:40	38
9	Imisli FK	33	7	13	13	23:43	34
10	Kapaz	33	8	3	22	25:61	27
11	Gabala	33	7	6	20	32:49	27
12	Karvan	33	3	6	24	23:66	15