Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sabail vs MOIK Baku

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa ASCO Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sabail play MOIK Baku in the I Liqa. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sabail averaged 2.75 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. MOIK Baku averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Sabail won 3, MOIK Baku won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 18, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for Sabail and 0.88 for MOIK Baku. This points to a Sabail double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Sabail
6%
Draws
4%
MOIK Baku
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Sabail has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to MOIK Baku.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Sabail.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in I Liqa provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Sabail Clean Sheet 68%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sabail MOIK Baku
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 14 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 I Liqa
Sabail vs MOIK Baku
2:2
Feb 18, 2026 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Sabail
1:0
Nov 5, 2025 I Liqa
Sabail vs MOIK Baku
1:0
Nov 22, 2022 Azerbaijan Cup
MOIK Baku vs Sabail
0:4
Feb 11, 2017 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Sabail
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sabail Compare

Top Goalscorer Voronsov R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Safarov Q.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

MOIK Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Faracov S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mammadzada M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabail 95 / 100
MOIK Baku 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sabail MOIK Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sabail scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

MOIK Baku let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Sabail went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

MOIK Baku lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sabail VS MOIK Baku
2.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Safa Baku27169252:2157
2Mingachevir27156655:2751
3Sabail27148546:2150
4Baku Sporting271310440:2349
5Sahdag Qusar27127836:2743
6MOIK Baku27961233:4033
7Zaqatala PFK27841527:4428
8Cebrayil27731740:5624
9Shimal27551723:6120
10Difai Agsu27461728:6018