Sport Picks
Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay
USA
USL Cup Heart Health Park, Sacramento, CA 
Match Events
6'
6'
Egwu K.
30'
30'
Timmer J.
37'
37'
Sub
Edwards K. In: Ukaegbu C.
Out: Edwards K.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sacramento Republic
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Sacramento Republic have won more games recently than Monterey Bay.
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Sacramento Republic taking it.
- Sacramento Republic have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Sacramento Republic, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 68%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sacramento Republic | Monterey Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 31 |
| Wins | 16 | 7 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.26 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.84 | 1.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic
1:1
Jun 7, 2026 USL Cup
Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic
1:0
Aug 10, 2025 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sacramento Republic Compare
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Monterey Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Bidois R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sacramento Republic 68 / 100
Monterey Bay 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sacramento Republic Monterey Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sacramento Republic Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Monterey Bay conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.
Recent resilience: Sacramento Republic stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Sacramento Republic found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).
These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Sacramento Republic VS Monterey Bay
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Sacramento Republic
(Home) 04 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Sacramento Republic
0 : 0 San Antonio FC
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Detroit City
Page 1 of 7
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
20 Sept
Sacramento Republic
0 : 0 San Antonio FC
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Detroit City
23 Aug
Sacramento Republic
2 : 2 Phoenix Rising
16 Aug
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Lexington
Page 1 of 4
Monterey Bay
(Away) 04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 7
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
22 Aug
Rhode Island
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
16 Aug
Oakland Roots
1 : 1 Monterey Bay
06 Aug
El Paso Locomotive
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Athletic Club Boise | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | 8 |
| 4 | Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 5 | Las Vegas Lights | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 6 | Monterey Bay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8:10 | 3 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Springs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 12 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 4 | AV Alta FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 5 | Phoenix Rising | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 6 | Orange County SC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:9 | 0 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 11 |
| 2 | Birmingham Legion | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 9 |
| 3 | One Knoxville | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 5 | Corpus Christi FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | 4 |
| 6 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:7 | 2 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13:4 | 11 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 8 |
| 3 | Indy Eleven | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 4 | Lexington | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 5 | Union Omaha | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:12 | 6 |
| 6 | Forward Madison | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:10 | 3 |
| 7 | Fort Wayne | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6:12 | 1 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hartford Athletic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 2 | Rhode Island | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Brooklyn FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 4 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:10 | 6 |
| 5 | New York Cosmos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 6 | Westchester SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:10 | 2 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 2 | Charleston | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 9 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 4 | Greenville Triumph | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 5 | Loudoun United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 6 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 7)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 12 |
| 2 | Miami FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11:5 | 9 |
| 3 | Sporting Jax | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 4 | Sarasota Paradise | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:9 | 3 |
| 5 | FC Naples | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 6 | South Georgia Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
