Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

I Liqa

Safa Baku

1 - 1

Baku Sporting

Our Tip

Match Events

48'

Zamanov E.

(Penalty)

75'

Mammadli K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this I Liqa matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Safa Baku

20%

Draws

38%

Baku Sporting

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Safa Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Safa Baku have won more games recently than Baku Sporting.
Safa Baku are the model's pick here, at 42%.
Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 36%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Safa Baku Clean Sheet 20%

Baku Sporting Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Safa Baku	Baku Sporting
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	17	14
Draws	9	11
Losses	4	5
Goals Scored	1.25	1
Goals Conceded	0.75	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 I Liqa

Baku Sporting vs Safa Baku

Possession: 40% - 60% Cards: 2 - 0

0:0

Feb 5, 2026 I Liqa

Safa Baku vs Baku Sporting

Possession: 49% - 56% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Oct 17, 2025 I Liqa

Baku Sporting vs Safa Baku

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Baku Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Baku Sporting Compare

Top Goalscorer Mammadli K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa Baku 42 / 100

Baku Sporting 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Safa Baku Baku Sporting

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Safa Baku scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Baku Sporting has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Safa Baku stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Safa Baku VS Baku Sporting

1.25 Goals Scored 1

0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88

50% Over 1.5 50%

38% Over 2.5 25%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Safa Baku	27	16	9	2	52:21	57
2	Mingachevir	27	15	6	6	55:27	51
3	Sabail	27	14	8	5	46:21	50
4	Baku Sporting	27	13	10	4	40:23	49
5	Sahdag Qusar	27	12	7	8	36:27	43
6	MOIK Baku	27	9	6	12	33:40	33
7	Zaqatala PFK	27	8	4	15	27:44	28
8	Cebrayil	27	7	3	17	40:56	24
9	Shimal	27	5	5	17	23:61	20
10	Difai Agsu	27	4	6	17	28:60	18