Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

I Liqa

Safa Baku

2 - 2

Mingachevir

Our Tip

Match Events

Aliyev N.

Zamanov E.

(Penalty)

63'

Cabrayilov C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this I Liqa matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Safa Baku

44%

Draws

20%

Mingachevir

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Safa Baku have won more games recently than Mingachevir.
44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%

Safa Baku Clean Sheet 15%

Mingachevir Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Safa Baku	Mingachevir
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	17	16
Draws	9	6
Losses	4	8
Goals Scored	1.25	2.38
Goals Conceded	0.75	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 I Liqa

Mingachevir vs Safa Baku

Possession: 46% - 55% Cards: 2 - 2

5:2

Feb 19, 2026 I Liqa

Safa Baku vs Mingachevir

Possession: 54% - 44% Cards: 3 - 4

2:2

Nov 5, 2025 I Liqa

Mingachevir vs Safa Baku

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Aliyev N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabrayilov C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Farmanov T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.16

Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa Baku 35 / 100

Mingachevir 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Safa Baku Mingachevir

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MIN Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Safa Baku scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 5.33 goals.

Mingachevir's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Safa Baku stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Safa Baku VS Mingachevir

1.25 Goals Scored 2.38

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25

50% Over 1.5 88%

38% Over 2.5 63%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Safa Baku	27	16	9	2	52:21	57
2	Mingachevir	27	15	6	6	55:27	51
3	Sabail	27	14	8	5	46:21	50
4	Baku Sporting	27	13	10	4	40:23	49
5	Sahdag Qusar	27	12	7	8	36:27	43
6	MOIK Baku	27	9	6	12	33:40	33
7	Zaqatala PFK	27	8	4	15	27:44	28
8	Cebrayil	27	7	3	17	40:56	24
9	Shimal	27	5	5	17	23:61	20
10	Difai Agsu	27	4	6	17	28:60	18