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Sagadam vs Ahal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
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AI Match Summary

The Yokary Liga game between Sagadam and Ahal finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ahal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sagadam
15%
Draws
34%
Ahal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sagadam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ahal come out ahead of Sagadam on wins alone.
  • Ahal are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Yokary Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ahal here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Sagadam Clean Sheet 10%
Ahal Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sagadam Ahal
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 9 20
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.97 2.21
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
2:1
Jun 7, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Sagadam
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
1:3
Dec 1, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Sagadam
1:0
Nov 26, 2025 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sagadam 26 / 100
Ahal 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sagadam Ahal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ahal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Sagadam went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Ahal's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Sagadam scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sagadam VS Ahal
0.75 Goals Scored 2.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sagadam

(Home)
19 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Merw
12 Sept
Altyn Asyr
2 : 0
Sagadam
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
30 Aug
Sagadam
0 : 3
Arkadag
22 Aug
Sagadam
3 : 2
Kopetdag Asgabat
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Ahal

(Away)
07 Oct
Ahal
0 : 2
Altyn Asyr
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
19 Sept
FC Asgabat
2 : 5
Ahal
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
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