Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Sagan Tosu

1 - 0

Giravanz Kitakyushu

Our Tip

Match Events

20'

Nishizawa K.

Assist: Yuba K.

63'

Kamiyama K.

72'

Sub

Nagai R. In: Watanabe S.

Out: Nagai R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sagan Tosu in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sagan Tosu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Sagan Tosu

Draws

Giravanz Kitakyushu

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sagan Tosu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Giravanz Kitakyushu haven't matched Sagan Tosu's recent run of results.
Sagan Tosu are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Regular J2/J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%

Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 68%

Giravanz Kitakyushu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sagan Tosu	Giravanz Kitakyushu
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	15	9
Draws	3	0
Losses	12	20
Goals Scored	1.75	1
Goals Conceded	1.38	2.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 J2/J3 League

Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

Mar 14, 2026 J2/J3 League

Sagan Tosu vs Giravanz Kitakyushu

Possession: 45% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Jun 1, 2025 Club Friendly

Sagan Tosu vs Giravanz Kitakyushu

Possession: 59% - 50% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Feb 23, 2025 Club Friendly

Sagan Tosu vs Giravanz Kitakyushu

Possession: 50% - 40% Cards: 1 - 4

4:1

Nov 20, 2011 J2 League

Sagan Tosu vs Giravanz Kitakyushu

Possession: 59% - 49% Cards: 1 - 2

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sagan Tosu Compare

Top Goalscorer Nishizawa K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Giravanz Kitakyushu Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sagan Tosu 95 / 100

Giravanz Kitakyushu 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sagan Tosu Giravanz Kitakyushu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOS Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sagan Tosu found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Giravanz Kitakyushu let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Giravanz Kitakyushu lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sagan Tosu VS Giravanz Kitakyushu

1.75 Goals Scored 1

1.38 Goals Conceded 2.5

88% Over 1.5 88%

75% Over 2.5 88%

38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15