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Salernitana vs Bari - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C Stadio Arechi, Salerno
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Butic K.
(Penalty)
11'
Butic K.
37'
Vitale M.

AI Match Summary

Salernitana in this Serie C - Group C matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Salernitana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Salernitana
20%
Draws
40%
Bari
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Salernitana have won more games recently than Bari.
  • Salernitana are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Serie C - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Salernitana Clean Sheet 16%
Bari Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Salernitana Bari
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 17 14
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.41 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie C - Group C
Salernitana vs Bari
2:1
Mar 15, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Salernitana
0:0
Nov 10, 2024 Serie B
Salernitana vs Bari
0:2
Jul 31, 2024 Club Friendly
Bari vs Salernitana
1:1
Apr 7, 2018 Serie B
Bari vs Salernitana
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Salernitana Compare

Top Goalscorer Lescano F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Varela Djamanca M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Bari Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Salernitana 36 / 100
Bari 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Salernitana Bari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Salernitana's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Salernitana went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Bari's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Salernitana VS Bari
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Salernitana

(Home)
04 Oct
Salernitana
2 : 1
Bari
26 Sept
Crotone
2 : 1
Salernitana
19 Sept
Salernitana
1 : 0
Giugliano
15 Sept
Barletta
1 : 1
Salernitana
11 Sept
Salernitana
4 : 2
Potenza
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Bari

(Away)
04 Oct
Salernitana
2 : 1
Bari
26 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Cosenza
19 Sept
Sorrento
1 : 2
Bari
15 Sept
Bari
0 : 0
Potenza
11 Sept
Altamura
0 : 3
Bari
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Potenza 8 6 1 1 21:11 19
2 Sorrento 8 6 0 2 12:7 18
3 Bari 8 5 1 2 11:6 16
4 Catania 8 4 1 3 14:10 13
5 Salernitana 8 3 3 2 12:10 12
6 Monopoli 8 3 3 2 6:4 12
7 Picerno 8 4 0 4 16:15 12
8 Casertana 8 3 3 2 12:12 12
9 Audace Cerignola 8 3 2 3 11:7 11
10 Foggia 8 3 2 3 8:7 11
11 Cavese 8 3 2 3 14:14 11
12 Scafatese 7 2 4 1 10:9 10
13 Inter U23 6 3 1 2 11:11 10
14 Casarano 8 3 1 4 10:13 10
15 Altamura 8 2 2 4 4:10 8
16 A.C. Savoia 8 1 4 3 9:11 7
17 Barletta 8 1 4 3 11:14 7
18 Giugliano 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
19 Cosenza 8 0 2 6 5:18 2
20 Crotone 8 1 3 4 8:12 0
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)