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Salzburg vs Hartberg - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Austria Austria

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Salzburg Logo

Salzburg

1 - 3
FT
Hartberg Logo

Hartberg

Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Hoffmann M.
Assist: Wilfinger F.
36'
Vertessen Y.
42' Event
Wilfinger F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga 2025/2026 game between Salzburg and Hartberg finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hartberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Salzburg
30%
Draws
37%
Hartberg
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hartberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Salzburg come out ahead of Hartberg on wins alone.
  • Model gives Hartberg a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Salzburg Clean Sheet 17%
Hartberg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Salzburg Hartberg
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 18 11
Draws 4 6
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 2.36 1.7
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Hartberg
1:0
May 17, 2026 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Hartberg
1:3
Apr 5, 2026 Bundesliga
Hartberg vs Salzburg
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Hartberg
0:0
Aug 16, 2025 Bundesliga
Hartberg vs Salzburg
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Salzburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Alajbegovic K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Hartberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Hoffmann M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wilfinger F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Salzburg 23 / 100
Hartberg 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Salzburg Hartberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hartberg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Salzburg's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Hartberg conceded in 70% of 27 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Salzburg remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Salzburg VS Hartberg
2.63 Goals Scored 2.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Salzburg

(Home)
02 Oct
Salzburg
1 : 2
BW Linz
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
17 Sept
Levski Sofia
0 : 1
Salzburg
11 Sept
Ried
1 : 1
Salzburg
06 Sept
St. Polten
0 : 3
Salzburg
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Hartberg

(Away)
24 Sept
Hartberg
5 : 0
Kapfenberg
20 Sept
Hartberg
3 : 3
LASK Linz
13 Sept
Tirol
2 : 2
Hartberg
06 Sept
Vorwarts Steyr
0 : 4
Hartberg
30 Aug
Hartberg
3 : 2
Ried
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 LASK Linz 32 17 7 8 56:42 39
2 Sturm Graz 32 16 8 8 51:35 37
3 Salzburg 32 13 9 10 56:41 29
4 Austria Vienna 32 14 5 13 45:50 29
5 Rapid Vienna 32 12 8 12 36:41 27
6 Hartberg 32 10 12 10 40:40 25
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)